https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/business/economy/china-ec…
That got hit with send prematurely.
China can be looking at a serious recession here. The data needs to come in later.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3163720/c…
China GDP growth for 2021 beats expectations, narrowing gap with US, but population crisis, coronavirus cloud economic outlook
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 8.1 per cent last year, beating most expectations and Beijing’s target of ‘above 6 per cent’
But GDP growth in the fourth quarter slowed to 4 per cent year on year, amid virus disruptions and a property market slowdown
Though the mainland’s population increased in 2021 to 1.4126 billion, it grew by a paltry 0.03 per cent, or 480,000, alarming observers.
The falling birth figures will further hamper Beijing’s efforts to build a resilient domestic market, which has been plagued by virus disruptions over the past two years. Retail sales grew by only 1.2 per cent from a year earlier in December, down from 3.9 per cent in November. Overall in 2021, retail sales grew by 12.5 per cent.
“The demographic challenge is well known but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected,” said Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management
“We expect [GDP] growth in the first quarter to slow further, and the government will face more pressure to loosen fiscal and monetary policies.”
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“The demographic challenge is well known but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected”
What does this mean?
DB2
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DB2, it means too many old people requiring benefits, and not enough young workers to pay for benefits. It’s a problem with much of the developed world, including the US. But its particularly bad in China. (And Japan I believe).
“The demographic challenge is well known but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected”
What does this mean?
DB2
I believe the estimates of the aging demographics were more optimistic than what is actually occurring. Is this a result Chinese officials lying about those estimates? I am incline to believe that thesis.
China’s population is actually on the decline now. It was predicted that would occur in 2030. We really do not know truth within China. Zeihan speculates the birth-rate has cratered or Covid hit China harder than they admitted.
2 minute video in which Peter Zeihan go into the numbers:https://zeihan.com/video-dispatch-chinas-demographic-decline…
He claims China will never develop a significant domestic consumer consumption economy.
“The demographic challenge is well known but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected”
—
What does this mean?
—
I believe the estimates of the aging demographics were more optimistic than what is actually occurring. Is this a result Chinese officials lying about those estimates? I am incline to believe that thesis.
I would think that for a population to age faster than expected would mean the elderly are living longer than expected or that the young are dying more than expected. Any thoughts on which is more likely?
DB2
Sorry I had to run. The article was not about the demographic problems of China.
NYT
snippet:
BEIJING — Construction and property sales have slumped. Small businesses have shut because of rising costs and weak sales. Debt-laden local governments are cutting the pay of civil servants.
China’s economy slowed markedly in the final months of last year as government measures to limit real estate speculation hurt other sectors as well. Lockdowns and travel restrictions to contain the coronavirus also dented consumer spending. Stringent regulations on everything from internet businesses to after-school tutoring companies have set off a wave of layoffs.
I would think that for a population to age faster than expected would mean the elderly are living longer than expected or that the young are dying more than expected. Any thoughts on which is more likely?
DB2
Nope. Zeihan speculates the birth-rate has cratered or Covid hit China harder than they admitted or both. But what is happening in China is opaque & unclear. Really can’t trust information from the Chinese. According to:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Total deaths in China from Covid is 4,636 (3 deaths per million) and only 223 new cases of Covid yesterday total number of Covid case over the years 105,087. I just do not believe those numbers.
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or Covid hit China harder than they admitted.
Well, we knew it hit Wuhan harder than they admitted, in January of 2020.
(Technically, no, we only knew something hit Wuhan hard - because crematoriums that normally run a single shift five days a week were running three shifts seven days a week, and they were shipping in funeral urns at pace to match that. Observed while China was still denying that there was an epidemic.)
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I would think that for a population to age faster than expected would mean the elderly are living longer than expected or that the young are dying more than expected. Any thoughts on which is more likely?
Or, third possibility, the birth rate is lower than expected.
Combinations are possible too. Example: if fewer people are being born, AND old people are staying alive longer…
(A large majority of the increase in life expectancy due to modern medicine and sanitation, is actually due to decreases in the death rate from birth to age 30 or so.)
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