China's Covid Problem

China’s Covid cases have spiked into the thousands, and the government is reacting with lockdowns. The problem is, of course, that keeping the newest turbo-charged Omicron strains at 0 is going to be a lot harder than with the OG and Delta strains.

If China sticks with zero Covid, a large portion of the Chinese population is going to spend a good percentage of their time in lockdowns over the next year or two, with no end in sight.
China has refused to import the truly effective Western vaccines, has failed to produce its own, and has MUCH lower ICU capacities than Western countries (and an elderly population - avg. age 39). It can’t really afford to let Covid run its course or even take a “flatten the curve” approach because that’ll create downright apocalyptic scenes with overwhelmed hospitals and people dying on the pavements.

In the absence of significant vaccine- or infection-acquired immunity within the population, Omicron will explode unless harsh measures are in place.

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China’s Covid cases have spiked into the thousands, and the government is reacting with lockdowns.

I can’t find the link, but there was one of the “year end predictions for 2022” pieces which predicted China would have a real Covid explosion. At the time, I remember thinking, “yes, with the contagiousness of omicron, that is definitely going to happen.”

Did anyone predict that Russia would invade Ukraine–in spite of the fact that Russia was already lining troops on the border and spreading propaganda? Not that I’m aware of.

Both predictions would have been examples of “good” predictions–based on things that are already happening instead of SWAGs based on ideology or agenda or simply wishing something to be true.

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I was pretty certain by early February, at the latest, that Russia would invade. Didn’t make any online statements, though :slight_smile:

Did anyone predict that Russia would invade Ukraine–in spite of the fact that Russia was already lining troops on the border and spreading propaganda? Not that I’m aware of.

SF,

The first troops lined up on the border I stated here I think France and Germany need to go into the Ukraine. It was obvious to all the news reporters as well what lining up the troops meant.

The problem was the stomach for it. I said I wont like what happens to the Ukrainians one bit, but the Russia military is “another matter”. Two people here read that as I would “like” the Russians dead. At that time it was a very upsetting idea for people. Now? The world agrees. I did not use the word “like”. It is another matter how they die. I feel worse for the Ukrainians than I had ever imagined I would.

The big thing with the Chinese lockdowns for the west is fossil fuel demand has been dropping in China. Particularly transports related. We have not seen the numbers yet.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/14/china/china-covid-outbreak-mo…

Major Apple supplier Foxconn announced it suspended its operations in Shenzhen to comply with Covid-19 restrictions in the city.

“The date of factory resumption is to be advised by the local government,” Foxconn said, adding “Due to our diversified production sites in China, we have adjusted the production line to minimize the potential impact.”

The restrictions imposed on Shenzhen appear less stringent than those on Changchun, a city of 9 million that entered a strict lockdown Friday. Residents there have been banned from leaving their homes, while only one person per household is permitted to go grocery shopping every second day.

If you think the US has “supply line issues” now, wait until six months from now. Without getting political, the party in office is going to be blamed for unavoidable stuff that happens on their watch - like the inflation caused by a war in Ukraine and a shutdown of China. The discussions will morph from which party will win the election to who the candidate will be.

Jeff

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Jeff,

The US is on a war footing.

Meaning the Prez is very unpopular supposedly. I have a theory about that…but…regardless…

In the same polling the nation is behind the Prez very strongly over Ukraine and all of the fallout. Including inflation.

The country is resolute against Russia. Throw in China for good measure. The American and other western industrialists are finding the exists.

exits…one day I will go back to Mrs. Hallie’s typing class.

China’s Covid cases have spiked into the thousands, and the government is reacting with lockdowns. The problem is, of course…

Look at the bright side! China is shooting itself in the foot and giving the West the incentives to move business elsewhere.

I’ve been fretting about Tesla’s Shanghai factory. It could be a disaster. I wonder what contingency plans Elon Musk has.

The Captain

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I’ve been fretting about Tesla’s Shanghai factory. It could be a disaster. I wonder what contingency plans Elon Musk has.

The Captain

Manufactured in Space, delivered by Space-lift? :slight_smile:

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