This is a name I sold some puts last year, that expired, but failed to buy the stock in spite of coming close few times. Any case, the stock is declining for some time and after earnings, it is down 5% today. Interestingly, post earning $70 put premium have declined, that is, from $1.8 it moved to $1.4. I think the primary reason is the company guidance for 2025, which is $3.67 to $3.78, which is slightly higher than this year 2% ~ 5%. If the stock declines further, I am looking at doing some covered call.
That is plain ugly. It’s living under the 200 day and could go much further down. If it breaks $82 to $83 than the next stop is around $70.
From your lips to God’s ears. 
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Thanks, I needed that. 
Just to keep tracking I have sold couple of $70~$80 Jan 26 call spreads for $7.75; If the stock stays above $80, I get 30% annualized yield. I am fully prepared to take the shares and add more if the price declines.
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- The company is a steady grower; Their target is 3~5%, FX has impact
- The company now pays $2 per year dividend
- The debt remained more or less flat for the last 5 years
- Most of FCF after paying dividend is used to buyback shares, not much over the last 10 years it is 7m ~ 10m;
2025 Guidance
- Company generally guides conservative
- Flat Sales growth
- Gross margin to be up slightly
- GAAP EPS up low to mid single digit
- Some analysts think $CL might cut ad to leverage the EPS; $CL in CAGNY presentation talked about, how they have invested increasing $$$'s in the last 7 years; The 2018 starting point is for a reason, i.e., that’s when $CL had organic growth reset! So they have made investments in the last 7 years to support the brand.
The entry price matters lot on these names; I expect some weakness in 2H and If the stock declines, around $70 will be a medium term buy; For now, I have couple of $70 to $80 call spreads, just to keep an eye;
Translation: they have pricing power. Their markets are clearly mature. Sales expected to grow with population, 2% per year. Organic growth is mostly price increases. They have done international for growth for decades. Otherwise growth requires inventing a new category. Stealing market share from the competition is difficult.