Climate Denying States Getting Crucified on Home Insurance

… a report from Louisiana.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/29/economy/home-insurance-prices-climate-change/index.html

intercst

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I seem to remember that California is having a lot of problems with insurance.

DB2

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Well, it’s not the climate-denying states, it’s the states that are hard hit by climate effects. California wildfires have been insane for several years. The fact that some states that are being hit are culturally inclined to deny climate change is secondary. The insurance companies are the best gamblers in the world, if they don’t like your odds then you shouldn’t like your odds.

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Hmm. CalFire tells us that over the last eight years (2016-23) there was an average of 7746 wildfires each year, burning an average of 1.5 million acres annually.

Pre-1800 the annual average burned each year was 4.4 million acres. “Fires ignited by lightning and Native Americans have been a component of the majority of California ecosystems for thousands of years…Skies were likely smoky much of the summer and fall in California during the prehistoric period.”

Prehistoric fire area and emissions from California’s forests, woodlands, shrublands, and grasslands
Stephens et al.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112707004379

DB2

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If there are to be changes (and there are, just ask the Anasazi) it will affect everyone, just in different ways. Perhaps coastal areas will see larger storms, higher surges, and more flooding - while interior parts of the country will see rising temperatures and perhaps more tornados or whatever.

So maybe the South gets hotter, the Midwest becomes less amenable to agriculture, and New England becomes more temperate. Or not. North Dakota is the new South Dakota, and Canada’s farmlands gain more arable land to the north.

Not really any way to tell, although hypotheses abound. Whatever it is, it’s coming - and I’m pretty sure, given our penchant for not doing anything significant about it - here we go. Oooh, fun ride, like a county fair except with life altering consequences.

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Goofy aren’t you stuck in Florida? Is that an open-air prison for you? The haters going to hate. Sweat it off its Florida.

It is all states. The refugee crisis on the southern border is largely driven by climate according to the International Monetary Fund. CAPDR = Central America, Panama, Dominican Republic.

Climate disasters significantly impact total migration through conditions in countries of origin, according to our research. In fact, three additional climate disasters annually, over a five-year period, can be associated with about a 1 percent increase in people leaving their home countries in the Caribbean and CAPDR. Comparatively, the impact in South America and Mexico is relatively smaller, ranging between ¼ and 1/3 percent.

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That is some of the funniest tiptoeing around the banned “P” topic on this board. Well played.

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I am in Tennessee. I am far from any ocean, yet located on a river controlled (thank you) by TVA. Tornadoes go to the west of us. Hurricanes to the east. Earthquakes are rare, and on those odd occasions (I am told) are almost unfelt. Winters are generally mild, summers are hot, yet there are mountains which are breezy and there is nature all over the place.

The only downside so far as I can tell is the retrograde politics, but that “climate” is breaking out all over, it seems.

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How many people were affected by the wildland fires in California’s prehistoric and colonial periods compared to how many are impacted today?

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The population numbers are much larger today, so the fires per capita were much greater then.

An important change in the last 50-100 years has been in settlement patterns. Many more people/homes/structures are now built in what is called the wildland-urban interface (WUI) – developed areas that meet or intermingle with undeveloped land. In California, for example, it is estimated that a quarter of the population now live in the WUI.

DB2

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Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk
Radeloff et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718850115
Abstract:
When houses are built close to forests or other types of natural vegetation, they pose two problems related to wildfires. First, there will be more wildfires due to human ignitions. Second, wildfires that occur will pose a greater risk to lives and homes, they will be hard to fight, and letting natural fires burn becomes impossible. We examined the number of houses that have been built since 1990 in the United States in or near natural vegetation, in an area known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI), and found that a large number of houses have been built there. Approximately one in three houses and one in ten hectares are now in the WUI. These WUI growth trends will exacerbate wildfire problems in the future.

DB2

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I’m not a science denier by any means, but I don’t think the evidence provides a lot of support for climate change being responsible for our perceived increase in western wildfires.

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Read nca4, chapter 8

Burnt up homes in the California is a perfect storm of long and short term ignorance, stupidity, and cupidity all rolled into hell together. I grew up worrying about this as I watched it “mountain cottages” take over perilous wildernesses I knew and loved well, and where I even worked on fire suppression back country crews (still have my beloved pulaski!) in my late teen years in the 60’s.

The causes I see in order of importance are:

  1. Idiocy of allowing ill-concieved rip-off-the-romantic-ignorant-buyers sprawling subdivisions throughout the WUI. That this was stupid and dangerous was known and solidly critiqued by the late 50’s, but comparatively impoverished rural counties and municipalities on the Sierra Nevada west slope and throughout the coastal ranges succumbed to quick bucks from unleashing rip-off developers and real estate agents.

  2. Long well known (strongly backed by ancient tree ring data from at least the late 60’s) of a millenially ancient centuries long cycling between wet climate (the lost few centuries) and dessication (the part of the cycle we entered more or less 50 years ago) screamed against allowing anything but fireproof construction.

  3. GCC is now also worsening the situationl, mostly as a secondary effect of loss of almost all the cooling glaciers and lingering snowpack that kept watersheds moist. GCC will become far more horrific as it accelerates.

d fb

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The extent of acreage burned by wildfires in California in the 1996-2021 period was 5X higher than in 1971-1995. The best available modeling indicates that this was due to anthropogenic climate change.

Abstract

Record-breaking summer forest fires have become a regular occurrence in California. Observations indicate a fivefold increase in summer burned area (BA) in forests in northern and central California during 1996 to 2021 relative to 1971 to 1995. While the higher temperature and increased dryness have been suggested to be the leading causes of increased BA, the extent to which BA changes are due to natural variability or anthropogenic climate change remains unresolved. Here, we develop a climate-driven model of summer BA evolution in California and combine it with natural-only and historical climate simulations to assess the importance of anthropogenic climate change on increased BA. Our results indicate that nearly all the observed increase in BA is due to anthropogenic climate change as historical model simulations accounting for anthropogenic forcing yield 172% (range 84 to 310%) more area burned than simulations with natural forcing only. We detect the signal of combined historical forcing on the observed BA emerging in 2001 with no detectable influence of the natural forcing alone. In addition, even when considering fuel limitations from fire-fuel feedbacks, a 3 to 52% increase in BA relative to the last decades is expected in the next decades (2031 to 2050), highlighting the need for proactive adaptations. https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2213815120

Another study using machine learning came up with something similar. Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California | Nature

Climate change is already impacting fire mitigation policy. In this case it is narrowing the time period for when conditions for prescribed fire burns are favorable. Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States | Communications Earth & Environment

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Is it possible that after a ~century of attempting to immediately extinguish most all forest fires that the fuel load just grew and grew, making each fire after ~1970 more and more difficult to contain?

I say this because as someone who frequently went to Yosemite NP I was amazed at the historical pictures of the Yosemite Valley and how few trees there were, comparatively.

I take no credit for this observation…it is what the Yosemite Naturalist rangers were saying back in the 1970s and 1980s…as they began the program of controlled burns (now renamed prescribed burns since they are afraid people will expect every fire to be controlled)

Mike

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Fuel load and fire suppression has to play a role.

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Is it albaby who is in Florida? If he is then you do not know retrograde politics. If we can dox either of you we will find a way to flush you out. LOL

The Santa Anna (is it?) winds might be hotter for a longer period of time. The drought might have been worse. A single degree is a lot of energy.

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