Coming economic storm: from new Nobel Prize winning economist

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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All these Macroeconomic trends are regularly discussed on the METAR Board.

America Is Sleepwalking Into an Economic Storm

By Daron Acemoglu, The New York Times, Oct. 17, 2024

Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, received the Nobel in economic science this year.

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Barreling toward us are three epochal changes poised to reshape the U.S. economy in coming years: an aging population, the rise of artificial intelligence and the rewiring of the global economy…

[Other rapidly-aging economies] introduced new machinery, including industrial robots and other automation technologies, to take over the tasks younger employees would have performed. These countries also invested in training workers so that they could take on the new tasks that complement automation…Alas, this isn’t what is happening in the United States. Investment in robots has increased rapidly, but it hasn’t been accompanied by adequate investments in people. …

Yet, even more than with aging, it looks like we’re going to mismanage this [A.I.] wave. …

What will replace globalization is less clear…This change is also slow and has significant implications for workers. … Alas, once again, the United States and especially its work force isn’t ready…

Unless we focus on these issues and act decisively, they will not just be mismanaged but also may spell a more dire future of work. [end quote]

There is approximately zero probability of the educational system in the U.S. suddenly waking up to a looming threat and providing high-quality technical education the way it did in the 1960s.

The issue of immigration is highly politically-charged. There hasn’t been significant movement in decades. I’d be surprised if Macroeconomic trends motivate politicians to take productive action now.

Wendy

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Article behind a paywall. But in response to the above, that is correct. But we don’t invest in people in America because that is “socialism”. But I agree, we are marching towards a future where work for lots of people is going to get disrupted and we are thinking nothing about the consequences of it.

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The thing about unwinding globalization, and moving production back to the US, is people don’t realize, yet, how much the stuff they want will cost them. Even if there were no employees at all, the price of land, construction, materials, will be disadvantageous vs India or Bangladesh. Then add employees, who can’t possibly live on the $3,000/yr that third world labor costs.

Steve…waiting for the slogans to meet reality

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But first came the 1950s when the wealth was built. The education system grew out of that wealth.

People can do many of these jobs with in-house training. Better corporations all train the employees regardless of college degrees or two-year schools, or even just a high school diploma.

Until we leverage factory production the other investments we need have to wait.

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How much of that wealth was earned by WWII GIs, who were able to go to college on the GI Bill? How much more wealth was built in the 60s and 70s, when peeps my age were able to obtain an education at low cost, because government heavily subsidized higher education?

Now, ideology dictates that everything be rationed by ability to pay, because the subsidies of the previous decades are now unacceptable “socialism”.

Steve

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The 50s had McCarthyism. We are not that far gone today.

It is always a mix.

We do not have the 70% upper tax bracket rate. Corporate taxes are lower.

We do want them higher but not nearly that high.

Those high 50s tax rates paid the bills for the government but politically created pressure until now to lower them. That uncorked inflation in the 1960s and 70s devaluing the dollar.

We have counter-cyclical economics now.

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Wait till Americans find out how much food is gonna cost if 1 of the current candidates becomes Prez, and implements his
deportation wish list. I LMAO at the thought of doughy soft Americans taking to the fields, in 100 degree heat, and bringing the crops in, yeah right,lol

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Since most of the economic trends and risk are political, I will remain quiet and enjoy the chair shuffling on the Titanic. You all are the wind beneath my wings.

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He’ll order the Army to work the fields. at no charge to the JCs…because, “must not burden”

Steve

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Nah he will lock up all the poor people black and white to have slave labor. He will particularly aim to lock up Latinos who remain in the country as citizens. He will need replacements.

adding, I just said that 3 dozen times across TikTok and FB. He “deports Latinos and needs Latino citizens as replacements. Convicts are slaves”. Should be interesting by the end of the week how many Latinos change their minds about him.

Old fashioned economics.

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