Almost everyone keeps telling me that I should have kept Elastic in spite of my doubts about its business model that I explained in my last two or three monthly reports. On the other hand, I had the impression that the market has agreed with my concerns about Elastic and that the stock has been relatively stuck in place compared to my other stocks and hasn’t moved the way they have. I thought I’d take a quick quantitative look and see if my impressionistic impression was correct.
Okay, since that December 24th bottom (roughly three and a half months ago) here’s what my major positions have done:
**Mongo rose 100.1% (71.8 to 143.7)** **Zscaler rose 93.8% (34.95 to 67.75)** **Tradedesk rose 88.0% (106.6 to 200.4)** **Okta rose 74.0% (54.6 to 95.0)** **Twilio rose 65.2% (76.1 to 125.7)** **Alteryx rose 63.9% (49.9 to 81.8)**
That seems like a fairly consistent range of gains between 64% and 100%, and an average gain of 81%.
Then we come to Elastic:
**Elastic rose 32.5% (62.5 to 82.8)**
That’s only about half of the lowest of the other rises, and only about a third of the top two rises. It’s sitting there all by itself. I’m not saying that you shouldn’t buy Elastic because it hasn’t moved like the others. It might be a bargain, left behind because it was misunderstood. What I am saying is that those figures imply that a lot more people than just me have had concerns about the business model.
I know that a lot of people on the board still have large positions in Elastic and I hope and suspect that they will have great results and shoot up for you, but I’ll pass for now.