I’ve been fascinated watching our stocks take turns recovering over the last month or so:
In March, Crowdstrike recovered from insane lows ($33ish) and ended the month up 10%+ YTD.
Then in early April, Alteryx recovered from insane lows ($80ish) and is now up 15%+ YTD.
The last couple weeks we’ve seen ROKU go on a huge run, and it’s up about 40% in April but amazingly it’s still down YTD.
Still, all these bounces make it clear to me that the market has realized our stocks can survive and even thrive in the current environment.
One other like ROKU that’s still down YTD is Elastic, notable because it actually started 2020 very low, after trading above $70 and usually in the $80 to $90 range for most of 2019. At $60 I see it as a coiled spring, even though it’s up from it’s ridiculous March lows near $40. When it comes to ability to succeed in the present environment, I don’t see how they are different from our other companies. Despite some folks having concerns about their pricing, the business continues to grow rapidly, so I just don’t see the bear case. I think the stock has to move up eventually as the business grows. I wouldn’t have expected it to be last to make YTD highs, because it’s never looked expensive, but I haven’t been able to time any of these bounces.
I already had a large position, and it’s not as high confidence as my top positions (AYX at 23% and CRWD at 18%), but I have added. ZM and ESTC are also large positions for me, around 13% each. ROKU is getting larger too, at almost 9%.
I’m no Nostradamus, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see Elastic have a large bounce at some point like we’ve seen for these others.