Consumers Not So Sentimental

[eldemonio]

In case you missed it - Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to the lowest level in the history of the survey. And…the markets are up. Weird.

Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation...

For shats and giggles, let’s travel back in time to see past discussions -

Consumer sentiment

Consumer sentiment surges while inflation outlook dips https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/consumer-sentiment-surges-while-inflation-outlook-dips-university-of-michigan-survey-shows/ar-BB1gX2Jo The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21% from a year ago. That followed a big jump in December and comes despite public opinion survey showing concern about the nation’s direction. DB2

US Consumers Rattled

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202405107672/us-consumers-are-increasingly-worried-as-inflation-rates-bite-university-of-michigan U.S. consumer sentiment is plunging against a backdrop of stubbornly high inflation and slowing economic momentum, a survey showed Friday https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-more-than-expected-2024-05-09/ US weekly jobless claims highest in more than eight months as labor market eases https://www.msn.com/en-us/mone…

Consumer confidence up for the first time in 3 months

The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 102, above 97.5 in April and higher than the 96 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. “Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was slightly less positive than last month,” Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson said in the release. “However, the strong labor market continued to bolster consumers’ overall assessment of the present situation. Views of current labor market conditions improved in May, as fewer r…

[DrBob2]

@eldemonio

Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to the lowest level in the history of the survey. And…the markets are up. Weird.

The markets are up because earnings are up. For example, Target just reported a very good quarter. Perhaps it’s a case of following what people do rather than what they say.

Target CEO on Q1 earnings blowout: We saw broad-based consumer strength

DB2

[Leap1]

Bob,

When will you begin to use the past tense?

[DrBob2]

@Leap1

When will you begin to use the past tense?

I do. If you notice, I wrote that “For example, Target just reported a very good quarter.”

What did you have in mind?

DB2

[Leap1]

@DrBob2

The markets are up because earnings are up.

@DrBob2

Heavy use of the word “were” would be more fitting.

[DrBob2]

@Leap1

Heavy use of the word “were” would be more fitting.

It is true that none of us know the future.

DB2

[Leap1]

We have more than one forecast.

Lose faith in your forecast fast.