Control Panel: Positive trend

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

The markets are front-running the anticipated fed funds rate cut in September.

Bullish trends in the stock and bond market are continuing. (Bond prices rise when interest rates fall so falling yields are bullish for bonds.)

The sudden jump in New Highs - New Lows on both the NYSE and NASDAQ show inflation of the stock bubble which is clearly shown by CAPE.

The Fear & Greed Index is in Greed. The trade is risk-on. Financial Stress and VIX are very low.

The Treasury yield curve is falling across all durations.

Yesterday’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump will probably have little or no impact on the markets.

The METAR is sunny.
Wendy

12 Likes
2

Not only are they front running it at the short-term, but they are also front running it at the longer terms. That makes the market even more hopeful. Earlier I was surprised to see the 10-year T-note under 4.2% and all the 10 year and shorter TIPS just under 2%. This also results in implied 10-year inflation of 2.24%, and implied 5-year inflation of 2.16%.

5 Likes
3

Yep.

Imagine how much wealthier you’d be if you just ignored the ups and downs of inflation, interest rates, and job creation, and remained invested for the long-term, while “minimizing the skim” of fees, commissions, trading costs and taxes.

intercst

4

You are making me nervous with the sunny talk.

But I do not bet on this stuff.