I never posted on the BKR board but I posted the same number on the old version of this board. My rational was simple. Starting at the low in 2009 2800 +/- is just about back on-trend line with an approx. 42% correction. A bit more than the 35% average bear (heh heh) but no record setter “Grandaddy of all Bubbles” and all that blather I was hearing.
If you remember anything about the other person’s reasons for 2800 could you list a few?
PS: I am beginning to see why no investment celebrities ever get it right! I don’t see 2800 out there as much now.
I’m sorry that I did not write down all of the reasons why the original poster offered a rationale for S&P @ 2800. Maybe it was a picture of a chart that showed the S&P’s meteoric rise in the past 7 years or so that really got my attention. I just tried to create that chart on stockcharts but am unable to get it to go back that far.
IMO Mean reversion is just a TOOL in the tool chest.
This Mean reversion graph suggests the market is still a bit over valued.
2800 would be mildly “undervalued”?
I plan to start averaging my excess cash back in next spring-hopefully taking advantage of lower prices caused by the Fed’s tightening policies. If I am wrong, I will be glad that I left 2/3 of my money in equities.