Control Panel: Soft landing ahead?

I never posted on the BKR board but I posted the same number on the old version of this board. My rational was simple. Starting at the low in 2009 2800 +/- is just about back on-trend line with an approx. 42% correction. A bit more than the 35% average bear (heh heh) but no record setter “Grandaddy of all Bubbles” and all that blather I was hearing.

If you remember anything about the other person’s reasons for 2800 could you list a few?

PS: I am beginning to see why no investment celebrities ever get it right! I don’t see 2800 out there as much now.

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2016ish, around Brexit vote day, and March 2020 lows.

Apart from that it’s been uninvestably awful for years.

People have just got so used to it they don’t even see it any more.

FWIW check this out, and this is after 12 months of bear market, and with imminent recession and rising rates

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good plan - best to keep the other 80% to buy in at S&P 1500, along with the rest of us :slight_smile:

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Now that would be capitulation!!!

I’m sorry that I did not write down all of the reasons why the original poster offered a rationale for S&P @ 2800. Maybe it was a picture of a chart that showed the S&P’s meteoric rise in the past 7 years or so that really got my attention. I just tried to create that chart on stockcharts but am unable to get it to go back that far.

'38Packard

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@FCorelli @38Packard and others.

IIRC, the argument for SP at (about) 3000 was, in part, “Mean reversion”.

I watch the BMW index charts for Mean reversion.
Here is SP500:
https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats30/^GSPC.html

IMO Mean reversion is just a TOOL in the tool chest.
This Mean reversion graph suggests the market is still a bit over valued.
2800 would be mildly “undervalued”?

:bar_chart:
ralph

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I plan to start averaging my excess cash back in next spring-hopefully taking advantage of lower prices caused by the Fed’s tightening policies. If I am wrong, I will be glad that I left 2/3 of my money in equities.

I made a recent investment in a gaming PC. Modest price on sale at Costco. It might be the best investment I ever make.

Play on the inside of an industry. The upgrade was necessary. The machine is inside the specs of developing a 4K 60 fps game. The 3070 was necessary.

Next year retooling costs are going to substantially rise.