Does anyone else see a disturbing resemblance to 2006-2007 when the markets were rising despite growing deficit concerns, declining auto sales, and an overpriced housing market?
I don’t see any convincing narrative of how the national debt/deficit is going to decline or even hold constant over the next few years. Every analysis says it will skyrocket during this administration.
I don’t see any convincing narrative of how inflation will be tamed in an era of protectionism and labor shortages, particularly with immigration being limited. Is there any scenario that predicts that curtailing globalism will NOT lead to higher consumer prices?
Meanwhile:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index —based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1. The Expectations Index —based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. US Consumer Confidence
Rising inflation, increasing debt, sharply declining consumer confidence. Yuck!