Counting Meta out

Any mea culpas out there? Or the usual make mistakes and forget about it? Just keep trolling with the usual expertise.

Expertise is earned when mistakes are admitted.

Some of you a few months ago were counting Meta out.

I do not remember any of my words on the topic. I was not bullish exactly on the stock. I think I said I wont be buying it but it will be back.

Most of the discussion was on the AR and VR developments.

This is a bear market. The last chapter of this bear market has not been written.

Meta is the best major tech stock this year. It is performing really well.

I bought it in my wife’s account 1 week ago does that count for anything?

Andy

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Andy,

By 2030 Meta will be a small company. The competition will eat it alive.

JMO Meta does a lot of things with strength but strength is weakness.

Bet on great CEO’s Leap, everything else is a guess.

Andy

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That is the first time I have heard anyone call Zuckerberg a “great” CEO. I guess so.

Just know when to fold.

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So why did you invest in Meta???

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The reality in Shiny-land is you are only as good as your most recent quarterly report. That’s why companies don’t want to put anything into R&D, and do a stealth liquidation, to make the CEO look good.

Steve

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Yeah, sure. Half a trillion here, half a trillion there…

DB2

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Andy

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I’m still not very bullish on Meta. Despite all the excitement, Q4 earnings were down over Q4 last year. And I don’t think the Metaverse is going to be the hit Zuck thinks it is. I heard an interview with Bill Gurley the other day. Gurley is a venture capitalist involved in tech start ups. Gurley was hugely impressed by the book Snow Crash which is where the term “metaverse” was first used (as far as I know). So when he heard about a company developing a metaverse, he jumped in and invested in it. The company produced Second Life, which was somewhat popular (and still exists today). But it never really took off. Gurley did an analysis to figure out why, and concluded it is really just role playing. And most people who are interested in role playing want to be out killing orcs or something and not mowing a virtual lawn.

Zoom calls work fine for dispersed meetings. I don’t think there is any need or want to have avatars instead of actual faces. I’ve watched a few Meta videos and it just doesn’t seem that cool.

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Managers often do not even want zoom calls.

An older friend this afternoon was discussing his game development days. He was not a coder. Instead he was making the novel 1984 into a rewrite to use in a video game…role play. I asked if it sold? He said not at all. I knew that before I asked. Another friend a waiter at the club house bar said he has a role play game he wants to make. He is not going to do it because he is trying to support two kids with his wife. I’d worry if that was his gameplan.

Zucker is not just making a metaverse to replace zoom meetings. That is just an exercise. The platform will be for programming other games like killing orcs. It is not just the first thing you see and that is it.

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In Microsoft Developer >> Learn all the tools from C# up >> Blazor >> in Visual Studio by Microsoft >> Using Unity and Launching it in PlayFab. Other than Unity it is all Microsoft. Blazor might not be that it is the least of it. Microsoft does train to use Blazor in this context and more. PlayFab is on top of Azure.

Meta wants to make such an infrastructure for developers from the ground up.

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I don’t know much about the under the hood stuff. But I’ve watched some of Meta promo videos and they look…underwhelming. Sure, you can go to a virtual concert and see Justin Timberlake’s avatar perform, basically like watching a 3-D animation…or you could watch an HD video and see the real Justin Timberlake perform. Sure, some people would think it is cool, but it just doesn’t sound that cool to me.

And in other news, VR headset sales are down.

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Every new tech is underwhelming. One of the reasons why being the first to offer a tech sucks. The second guys who offer it clean up. Meta is not the first. But all of it needs more robust specs on your PC/Mac.

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There are big complaints about Unity videos making announcements about upgrades. The videos are horrible. Never going to sell the product.

UE5 is the competition. Unity and UE5 release upgrades every six months. UE5 does so 3 months before Unity.

Both are getting more or less on the same page over a three month period. The presentations are radically different.

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This is for Hollywood films.

You need to see Meta or another make this sort of leap for AR and VR.

Subscribe to Andrew Price or the blender guru for these sorts of articles and more in an email.

another one…and endless AI Seinfeld

One of my kids bought an Oculus Quest. For the first three months, he was on it nonstop, we even needed to leave a room cleared out so he could use it. Then he used it periodically over the next month or two. And for the last few months he hasn’t used it at all. Literally zero usage.

When he first got it, we all tried it out a few times, but nobody besides him ever got into it.

Just an anecdote, but it is entirely possible that people don’t want to wear a “video mask” all that much.

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I am not sure how that will be creatively worked out. It is a mask now perhaps because no one in engineering has figured out how to project the images in a different way.

For instance a screen instead of mask or googles. The screen being in a rounded shape before the eyes. Yet the digital hardware making up for the curvature so you do not sense the curve.

I’m waiting for the Holo-deck!

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I was active in Second Life for a few years. At first they provided Linden Dollars (essentially game currency) to people who hosted events, like games and so on, but they stopped doing that. After that it was just sex clubs and gambling casinos (not open to people in my state) and a few rich people who liked to build imaginary islands (and the occasional non-profit cause or church group). In the Metaverse, content will be king. (I’m currently in Elder Scrolls Online, with its never-ending content and ability to build your own house etc., even though I’m not really much of a sword-swinger.) Anyhow, you can’t just build a platform, you have to give people a reason to hang out there beyond just a chat room.

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