TikTok and the Fall of Facebook

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

Facebook is facing a challenge from TikTok. Technology companies have to keep moving or they die. Facebook’s stock price is about the same as it was 5 years ago, with $META Price/Earnings ttm now about 13. Will VR transform $META into an Apple-like story? I think not. Apple had a cool vibe with the creative crowd, and so could upscale. Facebook has a not cool vibe with the young crowd and many others. Facebook is the largest online social platform with over 2 billion monthly active users, and so Facebook is a Macro factor.

— links —
TikTok and the Fall of the Social-Media Giants, By Cal Newport, July 28, 2022
Facebook is trying to copy TikTok, but this strategy may well signal the end of these legacy platforms.
“Chandlee, who spent more than twelve years at Mark Zuckerberg’s company before moving to TikTok, dismissed the idea. “Facebook is a social platform. They’ve built all their algorithms based on the social graph,” he said, referring to the network of links to friends, family, and casual acquaintances that Facebook users painstakingly assemble over time. “We are an entertainment platform. The difference is significant.”… A 2021 investigation by the Wall Street Journal, in which reporters created more than a hundred TikTok accounts to tease out the basic dynamics of this suggestion logic, showed that the app can target a user’s interests with uncanny accuracy in as little as forty minutes of observation. This rejection of the social-graph model has allowed TikTok to circumvent the barriers to entry that so effectively protected early social-media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.”
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/tiktok-an…

The top 20 social media sites of 2022, monthly average users

  1. Facebook — 2.9 billion MAUs
  2. YouTube — 2.2 billion MAUs
  3. WhatsApp — 2 billion MAUs
  4. Instagram — 2 billion MAUs
  5. WeChat — 1.26 billion MAUs
  6. TikTok — 1 billion MAUs
  7. Sina Weibo — 573 million MAUs
  8. QQ — 538.91 million MAUs
  9. Telegram — 550 million MAUs
  10. Snapchat — 538 million MAUs
  11. Kuaishou — 519.8 million MAUs
  12. Qzone — 517 million MAUs
  13. Twitter — 436 million MAUs
  14. Reddit — 430 million MAUs
  15. Quora — 300 million MAUs
  16. Skype — 300 million MAUs
  17. Microsoft Teams— 270 million MAUs
  18. LinkedIn — 250 million MAUs
    https://buffer.com/library/social-media-sites/

Sales Fall For The First Time In Meta’s History
Motley Fool - Sun Jul 31, 2022
“Apple’s privacy changes make it more challenging for Meta to collect data… Another factor hurting Meta is changing consumer habits on social media. Increasingly, people prefer interacting with short-form videos instead of photos. Popularized by TikTok, folks spend more time creating, sharing, and watching these videos.”
https://www.barchart.com/story/news/9407895/sales-fall-for-t…

6 Likes
2

TikTok gave up major ground, not MAUs, to FB IG and YT by giving them a backdoor.

I have a TT account for my marketing. They allow an IG link in the settings and a YT connection in the settings. IG is a backdoor for FB in the process.

You can see TT videos on FB and IG as well as YT. In YT’s case they have videos and in the left hand column you can opt for the videos under the name “shorts”. In FB/IG’s case they are called “reels”.

People can surf anything they like.

The rub is in ecommerce. Taking artists for instance, just selling by posting on FB is not going to get you many sales. FB throttles how far your post will go. Same on all the other SM and YT (YT is not a SM).

The videos are not throttled. The first reason is not really because of competition by TT. Let me explain.

The real battle for all of them is eyeballs. Short videos get the most time on site. Yes TT gamed it first.

The hype is nonsense. But every time Meta games something there is a screaming chorus of they never came with that.

So what! Meta is doing it. So is YT. I can add my animations to all of them. They TT videos will play on all of them. The videos I add to offer my animations as NFTs when I price them can literally be used on all four channels each video. If popular all four medias will promote them a lot further among their members.

In the metaverse space bet on Microsoft. MSFT manages C#, XBox and Windows. There development tools for gaming are beyond anyone else’s. Even the main platform for 48% of the market, Epic, works on the platform.

A friend who is a Ph.D in Aeronaughtical Engineering codes in Microsoft Developer. He is making a simulator currently. He has been my technical advisor in setting up my processes, giving me ideas on where to begin my journey to make my game. The Microsoft developer library takes a lot of the work out of it. I need to fully understand all of it.

The actual metaverse as in playing games is very immature. Part of that is the limited computer power in people’s homes as of now. The other part is the software needs more work. Microsoft is leading with the software as well. Meta or FB is not leading in the software nor offering the developers of games any tools equal to Microsoft Developer. The Microsoft PlayFab offers free services until you have 100k users/players.

Xbox and computer/tablet/phone gamer subscription fees are weighted heavily to payout the game developers. Unlike Apple’s iTunes. Quite the opposite in fact.

3

A friend who is a Ph.D in Aeronaughtical Engineering codes in Microsoft Developer.
He is making a simulator currently. He has been my technical advisor in setting up my processes, giving me ideas on where to begin my journey to make my game. The Microsoft developer library takes a lot of the work out of it. I need to fully understand all of it.

Wow! He sounds like a very unique person. Is it naughty to admit I’ve never met a real Aeronaughtical Engineer?

Mike

7 Likes
4

Mike,

Very naughty.

I am sure if you are not one there are a few lurking.

Aeronautical Engineers know how to spell. They get there without profound auditory processing difficulties in their schooling.

Enjoy your laugh. Kick your cat. Find someone in a wheelchair and push them off the curb.

Take care

5

Leap1

That was an unnecessarily harsh rebuke of someone trying to be humorous.

Jeff

9 Likes
6

Jeff,

The joke was totally on me not you.

He can apologize.

1 Like
7

Wow! He sounds like a very unique person. Is it naughty to admit

Is it naughty to point out there’s no such thing as “very unique?” Unique means one of a kind. There is nothing “more unique” than one of a kind.

You might be “almost unique”, but you can’t get more unique than unique. If I see this again I’m calling the grammar police, not the rag tag vigilante writing this post.

5 Likes
8

oh no not the grammar police…I dont want any trouble officer.

Listen I am hear because I have a love of business, finance and econ. The write part comes hard to me. It is not the board’s joke. I know I am self effacing about it at times. That is not an invitation to have a big laugh at my expense. My experiences were hard.

1 Like
9

Listen I am hear because I have a love of business

Just a small laugh with you :slight_smile:

10

Is it naughty to point out there’s no such thing as “very unique?” Unique means one of a kind. There is nothing “more unique” than one of a kind.

The English language is not precise or even logical. Unique can also mean “unusual” and “very unique” is sometimes used for emphasis.

In the metaverse space bet on Microsoft.

VR games are interesting, and the headsets are affordable (a few hundred dollars), but a widely popular VR application has not emerged yet. Many computer games are coded in 3D, and so moving the created world to 3D is not a hurdle but creating a compelling VR experience is challenging.

Microsoft is not developing new VR hardware and is not mentioned on some lists of top VR development software. VR might be at the “bleeding edge” stage, and so Microsoft probably has higher priorities. Microsoft can buy or copy the leader when the VR market is further along.

Unity is a good game engine (handles physics, cameras, game loop, special effects). There are many products for making 3D content (textures, models) such as Blender. Sony has tools for making content for its VR headset.

Google pops up on lists of popular VR software (Youtube, Google Earth), and so I would bet on Google in the VR space.

— links —
Is It Wrong to Say ‘Very Unique’?
The unusual case of ‘unique’
“people confuse logic and grammar. Grammar is not logical. Nevertheless, some grammarians insist that certain adjectives, usually called “absolute adjectives,” can never be modified… even Sherlock Holmes doesn’t apply logic to grammar… Our evidence shows that very unique is much more frequently used in spoken English than in professionally edited writing, which means that it is understood to be more informal and should be used with care.”
https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/very-unique-an…

The Best VR Headsets for 2022
Best Overall VR Headset costs $380: Oculus Quest 2/Meta Quest 2
Best for PlayStation Owners (For Now) costs $350: Sony PlayStation VR
Best Motion Controllers: Valve Index
Best Picture: HTC Vive Pro 2
Best for the Highest-Resolution VR
Simple, Tethered, and Windows-Friendly: HP Reverb G2
https://www.pcmag.com/picks/the-best-vr-headsets

Is Xbox Working on a New VR Headset for the Xbox Series X/S?, April 20, 2021
“Microsoft has confirmed that the company isn’t currently working on a new VR headset for its latest consoles.”
https://www.makeuseof.com/microsoft-xbox-series-x-vr-headset…

10 Great Tools For VR Development
“the VR market is expected to reach $56 billion by 2025.”

  1. Unity
  2. Amazon Sumerian
  3. Google VR for everyone
  4. Unreal Engine 4 (UE4)
  5. CRYENGINE
  6. Blender
  7. 3ds Max
  8. SketchUp Studio
  9. Maya
  10. Oculus Medium
    https://www.devteam.space/blog/10-great-tools-for-vr-develop…

The best VR apps in 2022
“These are the best VR apps, for experiencing VR and creating your own experiences”

  1. Space Explorers: The ISS Experience
  2. YouTube
  3. Within VR
  4. The Guardian VR
  5. Provata VR
  6. Dreams
  7. Quill by Smoothstep
  8. Gravity sketch
  9. Tilt Brush
  10. Kingspray Graffiti
  11. Tvori
  12. AnimVR
  13. Substance 3D Modeller
  14. MasterpieceVR
  15. FitXR
  16. Knockout League
  17. To The Top
  18. Half-Life: Alyx
  19. Beat Saber
  20. Vader Immortal
  21. Unreal Engine (XR)
  22. Unity
    https://www.creativebloq.com/features/best-vr-apps

This is a good list of VR games:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/video-games/tips/best-vr-apps…

3 Likes
11

X-Post from Destiny Solutions board fleshes out more ot $META’s bungled attempt to make Instagram hip for Gen Z - which has avoided Instagram and finds it kludgy. The Kardashian influencers said, “No, no, no,” and Zuck & Gang backed off their attempted “improvements.”

Pew Research has been following this and breaks it down as such:

Facebook - Boomers & Older Gen Xers
Instagram - Youngest Gen Xers & Millennials
Tik-Tok - Youngest Millennials & Gen Z

CNN Business headline: Instagram walks back updates after criticism from Kardashian family

https://discussion.fool.com/meta-kardashians-wag-fingers-in-zuck…

“Reality TV moguls Kim Kardashian and Kylie Jenner, two of the most popular users on the platform, were among the people who publicly criticized the TikTok-ification of Instagram. They each re-shared a viral post calling to “Make Instagram Instagram again.” Jenner, in particular, has previously had a strong influence over the social media sector; after she blasted a Snapchat redesign in 2018, its stock dropped.”

1 Like
12

TikTok and very unique –

https://www.tiktok.com/@tiktokfuntoys666/video/7055221903438…

13

laff,

Great response!

My goal is not VR. I wrote together about them with my plans for a MMO game.

The friend who has me on to using Microsoft Developer is not creating a game. He does not know much about Unity or Epic.

My goal is to use C# and Blazor. You are bringing up some questions for me. You have more knowledge here. Which platform do you recommend while using C#?

14

HoHum,

I hope you did not imbibe so to speak.

Some of the Chinese humor is really good.

15

Laff,

I am in the middle of some other pressing studies for another project but took a look at Unity and Epic.

Hands down I will be using Unity. That is not a comment mind you on UE5.

16

Listen I am hear because I have a love of business, finance and econ.

Maybe: Listen I am here because I have a love of business, finance and econ.*

The spelling police;-)
*
https://www.bing.com/search?q=here&search=&form=QBLH…

17

Research out of Rutgers:

A Tik-Tok-ing Timebomb: How TikTok’s Global Platform Anomalies Align with the Chinese Communist Party’s Geostrategic Objectives

Numerous instances of TikTok seemingly working in the Chinese Government’s interests have been uncovered…

To investigate, NCRI analyzed hashtag data related to six topics directly sensitive to the Chinese Government: 1) Uyghurs; 2) Tiananmen Square; 3) Tibet; 4) Hong Kong; 5) Taiwan; 6) South China Sea.

DB2

1 Like
18

That did not age well. I ended up going with Unreal.

19

Oh, that explains it.

Over the last few weeks, every time I look at my FB feed to see what is up with the handful of people and groups I follow, I have been bombarded with “recommended for you” teasers for other pages, obviously trying to get me to burn more hours on the site. Sorry, I have other stuff to do.

Steve

20

Agree that Mark’s Wonderful Adventure into headsets will not move the needle, now or in the future. But let us not forget Facebook now carries more advertising than ABC, NBC, CBS, and Fox combined with enough headroom to throw in a bunch of other successful, but smaller linear programmers like HGTV, Discovery, and more. And they do it with a lot less effort, given that it’s the users, not expensive Hollywood producers who provide the content.

And while TikTok and others have invaded and surely taken market share, it’s worth remembering that Zuckerberg managed to get What’s App, Messenger, and Instagram additions through before the anti-trust guys started taking notice. That hardly means he’s invulnerable, of course but he’s got some decent pieces in play. He also, to his credit, isn’t saddled with “not invented here” syndrome (worth noting that he stole the whole thing in the first place…) and in my less than frenetic use of Facebook I see them incorporating some of the better features of competitors to their already engorged base.

So: he has three entries on the big list; nobody else has more than one. For the record, I don’t like Zuch, but not in the way I don’t like Musk, and I could care less about whoever is running TicTok, at least until they show me how my niece’s videos are going to make those pesky commies turn out my lights and send me to the gulag.

Thus has it ever been: competition. Some will win. Some will die. I do wish Zuch would put down his eyeglass toy and pay more attention to his core business, but he’s unlikely to take advice from me - especially when I keep telling people I think he’s a schmuck.