Covid-19 re-infections

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/16/health/covid-reinfection…

**How Often Can You Be Infected With the Coronavirus?**

**The spread of the Omicron variant has given scientists an unsettling answer: repeatedly, sometimes within months.**
**By Apoorva Mandavilli, The New York Times, May 16, 2022**

**...**
**Covid can re-infect people. Unlike previous variants, Omicron and its many descendants seem to have evolved to partially dodge immunity. That leaves everyone — even those who have been vaccinated multiple times — vulnerable to multiple infections....**

**The new variants have not altered the fundamental usefulness of the Covid vaccines. Most people who have received three or even just two doses will not become sick enough to need medical care if they test positive for the coronavirus. And a booster dose, like a previous bout with the virus, does seem to decrease the chance of reinfection — but not by much...Omicron and its many descendants seem to have evolved to partially dodge immunity. That leaves everyone — even those who have been vaccinated multiple times — vulnerable to multiple infections....** [end quote]

In a week when the millionth victim has died (by the official count), Covid has had a greater Macroeconomic impact that any other natural disaster in living memory.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-nears-one-million-covid-19-…

Since most of the people who died (75%) were over age 60, the ongoing economic impact will probably be from younger people getting sick over and over (like the related cold viruses), potentially several times in a year.

So-called “long Covid” is still not really well understood. The extreme fatigue and other symptoms can occur in young people who only had mild cases. Nobody knows yet whether vaccinated people will get long Covid after breakthrough infections. Men are more vulnerable to death from Covid but women are more vulnerable to long Covid.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/16/world/covid-19-manda…
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html…

Currently, coronavirus cases are spreading at an alarming rate across the United States, particularly in the Northeast and the Midwest, as the country’s death toll nears the one million mark.

An average of more than 90,000 new cases are now being identified each day in the United States, a 60 percent increase from two weeks ago. And in much of the Northeast and Midwest, daily new-case reports have already surpassed the peak of last summer’s Delta surge.

Both 2020 and 2021 had peaks in July - August. It looks like 2022 is building toward that also. Many people in the south are still not vaccinated.

The Macroeconomic impact of waves of Covid will be mostly in the effect on the labor market if people get repeatedly infected via work exposure. Lower labor force participation leads to higher wages, lower supply of goods and services and inflationary pressure.

Wendy

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Due to cutbacks in official testing, the case numbers are understated and thus cannot be trusted. Also, case numbers are a lagging indicator.

The wastewater viral load figures are at https://biobot.io/data/ . For the nation as a whole, the figure was 525 copies/mL as of May 11th, which is 5 times the figure of 103 copies/mL at the March 9th low point and the highest level since early February.

While I’m hearing that there hasn’t been a huge increase in hospitalizations, ICU admissions, or deaths, we won’t know just how bad the surge will be until sometime after the peak. These figures lag even further behind than case numbers do.

I’m hoping that later variants are less likely to cause Long COVID. Unfortunately, the quality of the data is sketchy. If the current dominant variant (through some miracle) NEVER causes Long COVID, it would take weeks or months to confirm this.

Both 2020 and 2021 had peaks in July - August. It looks like 2022 is building toward that also.
Actually, last year’s peak was at the start of September.

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