Covid's seasonal lull is ending

In 2020, 2021 and 2022 there was a seasonal low point in U.S. Covid cases in September and October after the small summer peak worked its way out. During the lull, over 300 people a day are dying from Covid but that’s relatively low.

Covid cases start rising again in November, especially after the Thanksgiving super-spreader travel, shopping and parties. Cases are beginning to tick up now.

The insurance adjuster who flew to Seattle from Kansas City to handle some cases caused by last week’s storm was sick when he arrived and was almost immediately diagnosed with Covid. He’s quarantining in a hotel room on Paxlovid. He had Covid last year.

U.S. set to face third Covid winter, this time without key tools and treatments

  • Andrew Joseph
  • Jason Mast

By Andrew Joseph and Jason Mast, Stat, Nov. 10, 2022

The country is heading into its third Covid winter without crucial tools we’ve relied on at previous points in the pandemic, both as governments roll back their responses and as the virus outruns some of our most important medicine-cabinet defenses.

Free at-home tests are no longer showing up at people’s doorsteps. States are reporting outbreak data less frequently, and globally, testing and surveillance programs have been curtailed. Support for community vaccination campaigns has dwindled. And next year at some point, the U.S. government will stop paying for Covid vaccines and treatments, which could widen gaps in access as the products move to being covered by insurance…

Health officials have said that even though free at-home tests are no longer available through the U.S. Postal Service, the government is keeping up with other testing programs, including at long-term care facilities, schools, and rural health centers. Insurers are also required to cover tests… The Biden administration will at some point stop extending the Covid public health emergency, and it will expire. Such a move will have major implications for telehealth and millions of people on Medicaid, and it will also end the requirement that insurers cover tests free of charge…[end quote]

Many working people don’t have health insurance through their employers. Medicaid recipients (and poor people in states without Medicaid) won’t be able to get free testing and vaccinations.

If ever there was a penny-wise, dollar-poor strategy it is refusing to vaccinate poor people for free.

Society may be done with Covid, but Covid isn’t done with society. And the news that Covid re-infection is more lethal and also leads to more disability will have Macroeconomic impact as the workers are re-infected, some multiple times.

Wendy (still masking and vaccinated for flu as well as Covid)


We just recently drove from the SF Bay Area to Seattle and back, I refused to be locked into a plane… While a few were masking, it was pretty much unmasked in everything but the play we attended, Pike’s Market, museums, Space Needle, some vendors were masks, but not all… Didn’t catch anything, but the trend is similar here in Sonoma County, CA, the anti-vaxers are the carriers in any case, all we can to is try for distancing…

weco (yes, all vaccinated, Covid, flu…)


There is nothing to worry about with Omicron. I am more worried about catching the flu.

I am vaccinated for the flu still can catch it. I had Omicron in Sept and need to watch till Dec 10 to get the Omicron variant booster. I will do that.

I wish I had common cold vaccine. I have higher odds of being uncomfortable in that department.

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Mabe you have one? At least a partial one?
As you mentioned in a previous post, there are some hypotheses that a previous infection with a coronavirus based common cold produces a partial immunity to Covid-19.
Maybe that goes the other direction, too?
Ie, a Covid-19 Infection/vax imparts some partial immunity to the coronavirus based common cold?



The wastewater viral load figures (Covid-19 Wastewater Monitoring | Biobot Analytics) show that there isn’t much of a lull. 2022’s low point was back in March. Even with the current “lull”, the average wastewater viral load is still 5 times higher. What made this year different from 2021 and 2020 is a massive summer surge that surpassed all surges except for last winter’s massive surge.

The recent anemic drop in wastewater viral load has stopped. I’ll be surprised if NO massive surge begins after Thanksgiving and continues into December and January.

I’m shocked that only about 10% of the people eligible for the updated booster have gotten it. I got my updated Moderna booster over 2 months ago, during the first week it became available. Getting vaccine appointments was so easy, a stark contrast with April of 2021, when it was so hard to get one.

Getting the updated booster should be a no-brainer. Why are there so many morons out there? The original booster is 6 variants behind BA5 and 7 variants behind the newest ones. The updated booster is current with BA5 and only one variant behind the newest ones. Being 1 variant behind is MUCH better than being 7 variants behind.

How did the idea of getting sick become so normalized? Even a “mild cold” is plenty nasty. I cannot do anything if I have even the slightest hint of a fever. I really, really hate dealing with sneezing, a runny nose, and the sensation of suffocation from a stuffy nose.


fwiw, Michigan reported a significant uptick in Covid cases this week. As in 2020, I would attribute part of the increase to the religious meetings of the preceding month or so.


Well, it all began in the time of Jenner…and hasn’t truly died out since.

You would’ve seen quite strong covert support for the anti-vaxx movement over the past couple of decades on the Health and Nutrition board with all manner of ideas straight out of the anti vaccine manifesto gussied up as thoughtful decision-making where avoiding the flu, Gardisil, MMR vaccines etc came under discussion as a good idea. And yes, they spilled over to Covid in the early days.

Anyone keeping abreast of developments via TWiV podcasts will have listened to discussions of the development of vaccine hesitancy and suspicion over the years by epidemiologists/virologists such as Peter Hotez (along with the regulars) It’s a sobering indictment of the echo chamber effect of the internet and the general publics’ critical thinking skills.


Or it could be the spread of the new variants.

“The World Health Organization has said that based on current data, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 appear to be more infectious than previous variants but are no more likely to cause serious illness or death.”



Good news for us in Tennessee, we now lead the nation in new flu cases.

It’s rare to see masks on anybody anymore, although it does occasionally happen (and shamefully I admit to being one of those without unless a store is crowded or when I’m about the stand in line at the pharmacy or whatever.)

So, you know, here we go again.


Could be, however, the attendees at the religious events are more likely to not be vaxxed and not masked.


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