This is the dilemma. There are current facts and there are future facts. Stating future facts firmly does not convince everyone.
We will get there. The future facts do not disappear.
Some of the most ardent deficit hawks are already beginning to face the consequences of their own actions:
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The above article provides a pretty good summary of how the budget cuts are disproportionately hurting the states that voted for them. It is a good read.
Give them what they voted for - good and hard?
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The bird flu impacts may eventually be seen in other areas as well. The CDC information freeze isn’t helping, but may be thawing. I’m not super confident in the reliability of the information given the current state of…everything.
According to experts speaking out, the testing for H5N1 in the US isn’t where it needs to be to understand spread and contain it. Dairy cattle are already being infected, impacting milk, (watch out raw milk enthusiasts). Higher milk, beef, poultry, and pork prices may be in our future when the virus gets out of hand. I say when because the testing, response, and containment efforts have been crippled by the MAHA yahoos.
The panzootic spread for the H5N1 virus has not been seen before. This is very concerning. Every time the virus spreads, it mutates and potentially becomes more contagious and/or more deadly for humans.
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The CPI weight for eggs is about 0.119, so it hardly affects the overall CPI much. This recent bump in CPI was attributed mostly to shelter, food, and gasoline if I recall correctly.
Only a little higher. About $400B a year higher. If current trends continue, instead of a $1.8T deficit each year, we would have a $1.4T deficit after the 2017 tax law expires. That’s nearly as worrisome and still puts us on the path to oblivion.
Good article. The lady from Alabama ( Breathless Katie Britt ) and the rest of them are deserving of copious amounts of scorn and derision from the rest of us. Pretty sure Huntsville, Alabama takes in a whole lot of Federal dollars. They will feel those program cuts.
They need to feel some pain, which means their voting bloc needs to feel some pain. I already know that tariffs are going to cause pain. I don’t drink bourbon, so do not give a rip if the bottom falls out of the Kentucky bourbon export market. They voted for it, they need to feel the consequences.
Hypocrites to the Nth degree.
Wait till the next wave of natural disasters hit them, they’ll
be begging and crying for Federal Aid.
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What is your solution? What impact will an additional $4.5 T in tax cuts have on our national debt? Can you balance the budget based upon spending cuts alone? How deeply would you cut SS, Medicare and defense to accomplish your goal?
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Indeed. I read in another thread that UAB employs 20% of the state. 
DB2
Well, the first thing is that not every problem has a solution. I’m quite sure the Roman Empire also looked for solutions before their demise.
And the solution is pretty obvious and is pretty much stated inside the problem. We are spending way more than we have available to spend. So there are two obvious things that have to be done - one, reduce the spending, and two, increase the amount available to spend. If you can make them meet, then you can begin, just begin, the solving of the problem (the essential problem being a level of debt that its annual interest and refinancing costs are higher than GDP growth).
But we don’t want to use that solution because we believe in magic solutions that require less effort. The Roman Empire may have believed similarly.
Yes, of course (simple arithmetic, you cut spending by the exact amount of the deficit each year). But nobody wants to do that!
If I were an elected official, and wanted to get re-elected, I wouldn’t cut any of these very deeply. This is, in fact, why not every problem has a solution [that can ever realistically happen].
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An easy solution for part of Medicare’s shortfall is simply to remove the cap on the amount of wages subject to taxation (similar to how Social Security is taxed).
Jeff
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Part of the problem with the solvency of Social Security is that there is a cap on the amount of wages subject to taxation. For earnings in 2025, this base limit is $176,100.
There’s no wage base limit for Medicare tax. All covered wages are subject to Medicare tax.
Wendy
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Sorry - got it bass ackwards.
Jeff
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Rarely have I nailed market timing this perfectly.
Less than one month later:
QLD is down 17%+ since that date
UPRO is down 18%+ since that date
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Congrats Hawkwin, and others making the same moves after pondering and posting. Helpful to all, and a spot of cheer in the gloom.
My overseas properties, all in “safe” locations, are climbing in value as more and more people seek safe refuges. But the insanity level of the Russia and USA keeps climbing. No guarantees anywhere anymore.
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Great job, @Hawkwin.
I think I nailed it pretty well with Tuesday’s early Control Panel, " Leading economic indicators: cold front? ."
But my favorite prediction was “Control Panel: Hurricane Covid-19” in March 2020 on the old TMF METAR Board. I’m proud of that one because I really nailed it.
Wendy
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