I usually wait to post economic indicators on my Sunday Control Panel post. But these seem too timely to wait.
This reminds me of the time my family was out fishing and my dad raced for harbor after seeing an approaching cold front.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.8 percent on March 3, down from -1.5 percent on February 28. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, to 0.0 percent and 0.1 percent.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the second estimate. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.
The Atlanta Fed’s model tends to be accurate so this rapid decline is concerning.
Initial unemployment claims increased to 242,000. This is probably noise. But it doesn’t include laid-off government workers. The government is the largest employer in the U.S.
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded slightly for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. Demand weakened. Uncertainty over tariffs has caused confusion. Manufacturing is only a small part of the economy but the more important Services report hasn’t been updated yet.
Industrial production has been stable (hasn’t grown) since the end of the pandemic.
The leading economic index looks OK but other indicators are more pessimistic.
Economic optimism is fading.
Treasury spreads are following a pattern which is typical of pre-recession. The entire yield curve has dropped in the past week. The short end is now lower than the fed funds rate.
Stock market indicators are falling rapidly.
The METAR is for an incoming cold front. It’s too soon to say how serious.
Wendy
