The global shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating, but McKinsey’s latest report warns of significant strain on the supply chain for critical battery materials by 2030.
EV sales are expected to jump from 4.5 million units in 2023 to 28 million annually by the end of the decade. This unprecedented demand will put pressure on the availability of essential materials like lithium, high-purity manganese, and graphite.
While lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries reduce reliance on scarcer materials like cobalt and nickel, they still depend heavily on lithium, manganese, and graphite. The shift to LFP batteries offers some relief but does not eliminate the imbalances in the supply chain, highlighting the need for continued focus on securing sustainable sources.
However EV battery development is occurring that could affect what raw materials are needed.
Do solid-state and sodium-ion batteries have the power to overcome the lithium supply crunch? - Fastmarkets.
- Lower cost (eventually): The lack of graphite avoids the manufacturing stream and costs associated with this material. Also, the cell formation process (an expensive end-of-production step related to the SEI layer in cell manufacturing) can be simplified. Additionally, the higher energy density allows for fewer cells per battery pack, and the improved safety of solid-state cells enables a simpler pack design
A solid-state cell with a lithium-metal anode will likely require a higher lithium material intensity (kg/kWh) than traditional Li-ion cells, despite the higher energy density of solid-state cells. However, it is important to note that lithium material intensity (kg/kWh) does not decrease proportionally with increased energy density (Wh/kg). It relies on many factors including overall lithium content, cell design and electrolyte conductivity.
Breakthroughs in solid-state research are regularly announced, the most recent coming from Toyota who plan mass production of solid-state cells for use in their EVs by 2027. However, most announcements are not accompanied with physical test data, making it difficult to accept any production timelines at face value.
Solid-state cells are still in the development phase and their commercialization and widespread adoption are yet to be realized. The uncertainty of what these cells will eventually look like and be composed of makes it difficult to model the material demand.
Sodium-ion batteries have also garnered interest as a potential alternative to Li-ion batteries
Sodium is more abundant and less expensive than lithium, which could help mitigate supply chain constraints and reduce costs.
sodium-ion is still in the early stages of development and faces technical challenges related to energy density, cycle life, and performance.
However, it is worth mentioning that current Li-ion technology is continually advancing, for example, lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP), and will also play a significant role in shaping the future of the EV market. The demand for lithium does not look to be shifting significantly over the next few years. Battery innovation will progress incrementally rather than being disrupted.
CATL launches condensed battery with an energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg, enables electrification of passenger aircrafts
https://electrek.co/2024/06/25/catl-successfully-tests-electric-plane-1800-mile-model-nears/
CATL successfully tested a 4-ton electric plane powered by its ultra-high energy density battery. By 2028, CATL expects to reveal an 8-ton civil electric aircraft with around 1,200 to 1,800 miles (2,000 to 3,000 km) range.
With up to 500 Wh/kg energy density in a single cell, twice that of the average EV, CATL said it’s “opening up a brand-new electrification scenario of passenger aircraft.”
Hm What about smaller condensed batteries for automotive EV? 1000 mile range?
Big doings in battery development.