I’m not saying this is the time it ends - I still have a lot invested in similar companies and broadly I expect over the next 10 years to do very well out of growth.
What I do see is the following
- huge increases in retail investing, particularly in high growth momentum stocks. You can look at IBKR, Robinhood, Schwab data
- valuation levels in several stocks that rival dotcom levels
- valuation levels in several stocks from which the best executing companies of all time would not have produced good returns at similar growth levels
- all in the middle of one of the most serious recessions ever - in the most recent recession FANG and software traded down 50%, this time they traded up 50%. This is despite most software budget surveys pointing to a steeper deceleration than in 2009.
The above are true now but were not true last year.