CRWD update

Just a quick update to what I wrote here: https://discussion.fool.com/my-guess-on-what39s-up-with-crwd-343…

CRWD’s usual volume is about 2.7 million shares per day. Monday (when the lockup expired) they hit another digit, and volume was 13,807,010, so more than 5 times the usual. Yesterday it was only a couple times the usual volume, 5,760,528 shares. Today it’s up again – more than 3.6 million already, and the market has only been open for about an hour. So it seems pretty clear to me that there are more sellers than buyers right now.

Here’s the number of CRWD shares traded the last several days:

12/9: 13,807,010
12/10: 5,760,528
12/11: 9,367,919
12/12: 5,712,136
12/13: 6,366,544
12/16 in the first hour or so of trading: 2,204,382

Remember, 2.7 million was the average per day. We’re still seeing hugely elevated trade volume in the wake of the lockup expiration.

The price has been below $50, down between 10% and 20% from November and early December prices. I still interpret this to mean there are currently as many sellers than buyers, if not more sellers.

To me, this also means that now is the time to accumulate shares, while sellers are still letting their shares go at these prices. Once all the sellers have liquidated the shares they want to cash out, I would imagine the share price will start to head back up.

Does anyone have an alternative explanation of the circumstances currently surrounding CRWD?

Thanks,
Bear

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Bear,
If your thesis is correct, that these names are effecting this much by lock up expirations, which I tend to agree with, then why buy any of these names before this period unwinds?

I waited until the lock up day to buy shares in CRWD, and will continue to add now that it’s past.

I plan on waiting on DDOG as well, unless it sells off before that date.

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What is the lockup date for DDOG?

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If your thesis is correct, that these names are effecting this much by lock up expirations, which I tend to agree with, then why buy any of these names before this period unwinds?

I think there are many reasons, but here are the big two as I see them.

  1. We don’t know what the reaction will be. Some go down before the lockup and come back up afterward. If stocks cratered every time the lockup expired, we could make a fortune betting on it.

  2. We don’t know what will happen before the lockup. Maybe you can get in at $28 or $29 (like with DDOG a couple months ago) and then at the lockup it’s at $45. Even if it drops to $40 or $35, you were still better off buying at $29.

Bear

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To me, this also means that now is the time to accumulate shares (of Crowdstrike), while sellers are still letting their shares go at these prices.

I completely agree, Bear, and have been accumulating like mad. Crowd is up to my 3rd largest position at a 16% position, based on yesterday’s closing price.
Saul

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I haven’t seen this posted yet and it’s very timely free article from Burt Hochfeld - CrowdStrike - Strike While Its Iron Is Hot

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4312733-crowdstrike-strike-…

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3/17/2020

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