Cutting greenhouse emissions in Europe

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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This shows that it can be done successfully regardless of the propaganda here in the US. We have a few people in the US eagar to capitalize on fossil fuels.

In the past decades, the EU took firm action against climate change, resulting in a more than 37% drop in EU emissions in 2023 compared with 1990 levels. This is mainly a result of a growing use of renewable energy and decreased use of carbon-intensive fossil fuels. Improvements in energy efficiency and structural changes in the economy also contributed to meeting these goals.

Now, more ambitious goals are set that include a net 55% or greater reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 and a climate-neutrality objective by 2050. Reaching these goals will require even higher emission cuts through transitioning from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy. It also means halting deforestation, using land sustainably and r estoring nature until we reach the point where the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is balanced with the capture and storage of these gases in our forests, oceans and soil.

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How many of those greenhouse emissions were simply exported to China, India, and other parts of Asia? The Chinese (and others) make the things that the Europeans want to buy. The Chinese burn coal (lots of coal) to make those things. This way, the Europeans get to feel good about themselves for being so Green, and they didn’t have to get their hands dirty making those consumer goods. Americans are probably equally guilty, to some extent.

Meanwhile, world consumption of fossil fuels continues to increase…

From the Guardian…

Governments around the world are ramping up coal, gas and oil extraction which will put climate goals beyond reach, new data has shown.

Far from reducing reliance on fossil fuels, nations are planning higher levels of fossil fuel production for the coming decades than they did in 2023, the last time comparable data was compiled.

This increase goes against the commitments that countries have made at UN climate summits to “transition away from fossil fuels” and phase down production, particularly of coal.

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From the Statistical Review of World Energy, in 2024, the world burned 199 exajoules (EJ) of oil, 148 EJ of natural gas, and 165 EJ of coal. All three of these were at record highs in consumption.

We are coming up on the 10th anniversary of the famed Paris Agreement. But consumption of fossil fuels keeps going up.

Isn’t it about time to admit that the methods being used to limit the amount of CO2 in the air have been complete failures? Nah, of course not. We are just going to keep implementing the same failed policies that have brought us here, and the CO2 concentration will just keep increasing.

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CO2 graph from here.

_ Pete

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That looks more like a plateau than a serious decline. Below is China’s latest announcement regarding future greenhouse emissions.

China announced its plans for future cuts to greenhouse gas emissions on Wednesday, producing a scathing response from experts who said they were much too weak to stave off global catastrophe.

And…

China’s plans are to cut emissions by between 7% and 10% of their peak by 2035 – a long way from the 30% cut that experts said was feasible and necessary.

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10% below the peak by 2035.

We don’t know when the peak will occur, so it is a guess what the peak emissions will be. Assuming the peak was last year, that would put China’s annual CO2 emissions from energy at between 10 and 11 billion tonnes (depending on which source you want to use). That would still be more than twice the current US CO2 emissions.

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Chart from here.

It is also important to remember that just because CO2 emissions per year might go down a little, that doesn’t mean the CO2 air concentration will decline. The concentration will still go up, but maybe at a little slower of a rate. If China’s CO2 emissions only decline by 10%, the rate will hardly change at all. It will still go up around 2.5 ppm per year. And then there are the increasing emissions from other growing nations like India, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc.

_ Pete

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The point as you know is Europe’s and America’s pollutionary industries shifted to Chinese production. The Chinese economy was growing. So plateau is excellent.

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So, what’s your point? China only plateaued so why should we do anything? Seems like a strong case of whataboutism here.

According to you, Europe exported all their dirty industries to China for a drop. But then China got all those dirty industries and plateaued. Seems like a pretty good outcome to me. Net drop.

V

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And in fact, China plateauing is great news! Under the Paris Agreement, China pledged to plateau emissions by 2030. They have either beaten that or about to beat that five years early. This is a success story. We should be popping champagne.

China is often held up as a climate boogiemen by hypocritical and self-serving US politicians. The Guardian article is a great example of that. China only pledges cut emissions by 7-10% off the peak. The US pledges to cut zero. So the obvious conclusion is that China is the bad actor responsible for all our problems.

And since China is bad actor, that relieves us of any responsibility for doing anything, so time to toss all of our efforts right in the woodchipper.

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China is helping with making of Solar panels in a cost effetive way with large scale. The west is struggling with manufacturing.

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I didn’t say Europe exported all of its dirty industries. But I do think a decline in manufacturing explains a portion of the decline in CO2 emissions.

Germany would have much lower CO2 emissions if they had decided to shut down their coal-fired power plants instead of all of their nuclear plants. But it was more important for the Greens to shut down the nukes than to reduce CO2.

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What drop? There is no net, long term drop! As I wrote earlier, world CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are at an all time high. China’s emissions are at an all-time high, as of full year 2024. Might China’s CO2 emissions be flat this year compared to last? Yes, it could happen. We shall see. If so, does that mean China is then on a major long term decline from here on? I have no idea, but I am skeptical.

Going back to jaagu’s graph, (the one that shows the plateau), it looks to me there was a larger decline in China’s emissions back in 2016, compared to 2024 and 2025. But what happened after 2016? Big increases. There were some later dips due to the COVID economic disruptions, but those had little to do with green policies, IMO.

From the Statistical Review of World Energy, below are the total world-wide CO2 emissions from energy, in 5-year increments.
2004: 27,132 million tonnes CO2
2009: 29,750
2014: 32,845
2019: 34,142
2024: 35,492

From 2004 through 2024, total Europe’s energy related CO2 emissions declined by 1480 million tonnes per year.
During that same time, the USA’s CO2 emissions declined 1220 million tonnes per year.
However, during that ‘04 to ‘24 period, China’s emissions increased 5881 million tonnes. China increased more than Europe and USA combined decreases.

Here is the bottom line. The atmospheric CO2 concentration will continue to increase, no matter what the Kyoto Protocols and Paris Agreements and whatever else they come up with say. Poorer, developing nations have decided they don’t want to be poor forever. Economic development, for them, is more important. Wind turbines and solar panels, by themselves, just don’t provide the kind of energy needed for a major industrial base.

_ Pete

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This part has me scratching my head. The Kyoto Protocols and Paris Agreement explicitly planned on increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. That is a baked in assumption. So yes, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been increasing. That’s exactly what everyone thought would happen and planned for.

Here in the USA, government policy is to aggressively maximize CO2 production. We’ve ditched almost every climate policy including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.

Since the US isn’t interested in climate solutions, the rest of the world won’t be either. That’s how leadership works.

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What hasn’t happened is keeping the temperature increase below 1.5°C (which is the point of the whole exercise).

DB2

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We have one planet. Let’s not play games. Let’s err on side of doing everything to prevent climate change disaster.

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Yep, I was thinking last night CO2 emissions are about to drop a great deal as we go into a Great Depression.

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You’ve been thinking about this great depression for a while now. Trouble with depressions is, they imply a TEMPORARY state. The rest of this thread is about looking at permanent changes.

Would you like to suggest that the TEMPORARY state provides a higher likelihood that we have PERMANENT changes as a result?

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The Great Depression was not exactly temporary.

Opportunity? Yes.

But not if you are long right now.

@GDavenport, since this is an economics board, I see taxes going a lot higher as a result of the coming depression.

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Why play with nature and destroy heaven ?

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Well yes, of course. The point is to keep the temperature increase below 1.5°C by the end of the century. Since it is (looks at calendar) only 2025 it appears you are correct. The end of century in fact has not happened.

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In the first 6 months of 2015 China’s emissions declined by 1% due to the massive buildout of clean energy in 2024.

Analysis: Record solar growth keeps China’s CO2 falling in first half of 2025 - Carbon Brief

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waterfell likes to post emissions data that is 2.5 years old. Here is the latest data for the first 6 months of 2025:

China’s CO2 Emissions Drop by 1% year on year in the first half of 2025 - Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks - Motley Fool Community

Analysis: Record solar growth keeps China’s CO2 falling in first half of 2025 - Carbon Brief

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I posted the latest, full-year data from the Statistical Review of World Energy. The latest full calendar year was 2024. You can do the math for how much time has elapsed since Dec 31, 2024.

It doesn’t matter much if China’s CO2 drops 1% this year or increases 1%. China will still emit more than twice the amount of CO2 from energy than the United States. China’s latest announcement was for a 7% to 10% drop by 2035. Call me underwhelmed, with respect to the scope of what is really needed, if we are supposed to be serious about this issue.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/chinas-xi-announces-new-climate-targets-2025-09-24/

_ Pete

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