I’ll be deploying the last of my latent cash by adding some AYX either premarket today, if the Friday drop holds, or waiting until the market opens and picking any of several stocks I own to add to.
I will keep enough cash to live on without having to sell something for several months, but that’s it.
Of course it is tempting to brace ourselves with cash positions or bonds or whatever. Losing large sums of money, even when they’re on-paper gains (whatever that means — it’s all money to me), really does hurt.
And yet I just keep remembering that our companies will be reporting great Q results starting in just a few days! I believe that these companies are doing things. I won’t say changing the world, but I will say that they are making big fans out of their customers and changing the game in their respective niches.
Nothing has changed, except that these companies now trade at less of a premium (read: a better value). I don’t care if you think they’re “expensive” or “cheap” at these levels. Frankly I’m willing to buy these companies either way. Because what it’s really about is where they’re going.
I think Alteryx will be a much larger operation soon. It’s growing reliably and impressively. And its market cap is back down to a valuation of 2.6 billion or so. I’m taking that bet all day on this company.
Just some thoughts. I’m tired of hearing about whether or not a crash might be coming. NO ONE KNOWS. NO ONE EVER KNOWS. EVER. You can miss a lot of gains on the sidelines. Just get in and enjoy the ride. These companies are doing things not to be missed.
Yes, I did the same. I had been reducing my limited leverage during August and September. I went back up to my maximum limit which means I effectively added to my AYX, TWLO, and MDB positions. I even closed out some NTNX short puts and switched them to the others because I think TWLO, AYX, and MBD may well recover more quickly than NTNX after earnings (and earnings for NTNX will come a month later which would give be a chance to exit the positions sooner). I realize this is more of a trade (with earnings being the near term potential catalyst) than an investment, but about 90-95% of my portfolio is investments and 5-10% is trades.
Was it poorly the level of conviction
Was it the degree of fall
Was it a combination of both?
On the one hand level of fall might be a form of price anchoring and so interested in your approach or that of those that have used this as a buying opportunity.
Take AYX for instance. Their current revenue is at $180M, their operating expenses also $180M, cost of revenue $22M.
In 5 years I can see their revenue grow by 35% p.a., their operating expenses grow by 15% and their cost of revenue more or less staying the same.
In 5 years I’d get:
Revenue $807M
OpEx $362M
CAGR $25M
Profit $420M
If I assume a P/E of 30, that would represent a market cap of $12,6B or a 400% increase to today’s valuation.
Based on these assumptions AYX was one of the best buys to make out of my portfolio at these prices.
We could argue about whether the assumptions are right, but those were my numbers. If you see it differently, you’ll get different outcomes.