Big Changes

To my point about how far we’ve come, I need to update this little chart:

Company        8/27 Mkt Cap       9/26 Mkt Cap     10/18 Mkt Cap
Smartsheet          5.3b               4.3b              4.1b
MongoDB             8.3b               7.0b              6.3b
Alteryx             9.5b               7.5b              6.4b
Zscaler             9.1b               6.9b              6.0b
Crowdstrike        17.2b              12.6b              9.8b

Everything else I said here still stands:

If you’ve been sitting on cash, I can’t imagine waiting for a better opportunity. One may come, but to bet on it coming seems like you’re really pushing it.

That said, some of us like a cash cushion. I’m one of them, and I’m just saying, mine is now gone. These businesses are worth more than this, and they will prove it as they report on their companies the next several quarters.



Bear - I’m with you on this. Today is an opportunity. I’m very positive on AYX at today’s prices.

Same here. I added to AYX and OKTA both yesterday – which, of course, means they’re down more today. My limit orders for SMAR and two others didn’t trigger, which saved me today’s small losses, and I’ve re-entered lower ones for SMAR, MDB and NOW.

Ok. OK! I bought some. Down to 10 percent cash.

Would add more to ZS but it is already a large position.

Added to SMAR, MDB, AYX and CRWD.

Just saying so folks can load up on puts and make a killing.

When you get rich I want a ride in your jet.



I like your conviction Bear. But off course companies that have no earnings (profit), could “potentially” go to zero :slight_smile:

Normally, I’d be doubling down here, like you are. But I’m holding back for now because there is just too much uncertainty and instability in the market. There is the China trade war, new EU tariffs, USMCA ratification, Brexit, EU recession, Turkey/Syria, impeachment inquiry, softening consumer confidence, very weak manufacturing data. We’re also into the 4th quarter when a lot of institutional investors are locking in profits and rebalancing to polish their numbers for the year.

I’m still keeping a larger than usual cash position for now, which I started building in July, because I’m uncomfortable with this set of macro conditions. But who knows, when these things bounce back they will probably snap back fast, and I’ll regret not taking advantage. But for now I can sleep a little easier.


Thanks for mentioning OKTA.
It is the only Cloud Stock that I have owned for years. Don’t want to sell and pay taxes on PROFIT, which is daily deminishing. I think earnings are Nov. 26th. Hopeful! OKTA’S DAILY LOSS is larger than on my recent buys, which are thanks to SAUL and his wonderful Board! STJ

It’s quite obvious that our stocks will run high at least until mid-December. Just like they did last year. AYX and TWLO kick off earnings on 10/30 followed by several others the following week. Most will beat and all will be good. Wish I knew if they’d follow suit in crash again for a couple weeks on December, like last year.

As far as TEAM - it’s still overvalued in my mind. I keep a spreadsheet that says it will shouldn’t rise at all next year. My spreadsheet also has our stocks rising 25-80%.
Just some food for thought.


The psychology of the public markets, owning stock in companies and having the ability to watch prices move move up and down on a minute to minute basis all week is fascinating.

I think there’s a lot of over analysis going on.

They went up a lot, actually too much, now they are coming back down to more sane levels.

Imagine if you couldn’t see the daily price changes. Let’s say you bought stock first trading day of the year and could only see the value on the last trading day of the year.

Take MDB for example. Let’s say the price closes on the last day of trading 2019 exactly where it is right now. On that last day, assuming you bought on the first trading day, you would look and see that the stock price is up 40% for the year. Would you be happy with that return? I would. I’d be ecstatic.

These price swings are way too emotional. Like Saul said relax.

If you liked these names at all time highs, why would you dislike them 50% lower in price. I’m buying.