DMN Opinion Article on Europe Energy Supply

Saw this in yesterday’s local newspaper and thought it was worth sharing. It’s an opinion by Bjorn Lomborg concerning the need for the EU to become independent of Russian gas and the alternates he sees.

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Bjorn Lomborg and Michael Shellenberger have been anti-renewable energy and climate change skeptics. They have also been pro fossil fuels and pro nuclear power. They have been discredited by the scientific/engineering community.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bj%C3%B8rn_Lomborg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shellenberger

Jaak

I’m less sanguine than you about renewables being a sufficient alternate. The EU isn’t prime wind and solar territory. And the problem of intermittent supply has not been solved without fast reacting natural gas plants to back it up.

This makes no sense. They clearly already have the natural gas plants “to back it up” because they’re using them now all the time . If the EU isn’t prime wind and solar territory, somebody should tell Denmark, home too the two largest windmill companies in the world (Siemens is one). Nebraska is the largest wind producer in the US, Denmark which is 4 times smaller has 2 times the installed wind capacity and projects to double even that in the next few years.

Germany already has more installed solar capacity than any state in the US except California.

The simple fact is that every cubic foot of natural gas replaced in the daytime because it is another cubic foot that can be burned at some other time, and reduces the amount that has to be imported from Russia. Denmark, incidentally, reports almost no problem with intermittency even though 40% of their power comes from wind/solar; they trade credits with other countries across the EU grid. (No, Denmark is not some crazy always windy place; they are almost perfectly average with the rest of Europe.)

It’s weird. European countries and the United States can turn their economies on a dime when someone shows up with airplanes or tanks, but is paralyzed with indecision when Russia holds the energy card even as they send their airplanes and tanks into a non-hostile country.

But yes, apparently that’s too much trouble for us.

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Certainly true. I do wonder, however, where the raw materials will come from for the millions and millions of EVs that have been announced for the next few years.

I recall people saying the same thing about how we’d get enough raw materials to build a PC for everyone back in the 80s and 90s. Somehow, demand caused supplies to go up.

Mike

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I’m less sanguine than you about renewables being a sufficient alternate.

Renewables are the long term solution but we are facing a short term problem so the solution has to be what is readily available now, oil & gas.

The Captain
yesterday Enphase Energy (ENPH) was up +10.82%

Nickel surge just raised the input cost for an electric vehicle by $1,000

Nickel is being phased out of standard range EVs with the use of the much safer LFP battery cells.

BYD Blade Battery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEvR3kyx_KM

Tesla is using LFP in the storage products, PowerWall & MegaPack.

The Captain
F for iron

1 Like

Certainly true. I do wonder, however, where the raw materials will come from for the millions and millions of EVs that have been announced for the next few years.

I recall people saying the same thing about how we’d get enough raw materials to build a PC for everyone back in the 80s and 90s. Somehow, demand caused supplies to go up.

Is the time scale realistic? For the '25-26 time frame, Ford and GM alone have announced an increase of four million EVs. Do you know the time scales on ramping up production, finding and opening new mines and so forth?

DB2

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FWIW, nine years ago the British Geological Survey estimated that the UK had 1,300 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, but the government shut down exploration.

UK’s Cuadrilla calls for ‘urgent’ action on shale gas well closures
www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/lates…
UK shale gas pioneer Cuadrilla Resources has urged the UK authorities to clarify whether it must still proceed with the plugging and abandonment of two shale gas wells in northwest England. Cuadrilla said in February it planned to permanently seal the two shale gas wells it drilled at the Preston New Road site after the Oil and Gas Authority ordered them to be plugged and abandoned.

However, UK business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said March 9 that “it did not necessarily make sense” to concrete over the wells at the site. “I urgently request the Business Department and the OGA to formally withdraw its instruction to plug the wells,” Cuadrilla CEO Francis Egan said late-March 10. The OGA – which declined to comment March 11 – set Cuadrilla a deadline of June 30 to fill its shale gas wells with concrete.

DB2

UK’s Cuadrilla calls for ‘urgent’ action on shale gas well closures

And in another kind of action…

Extinction Rebellion releases plan to block UK oil refineries in April
https://extinctionrebellion.uk/2022/03/09/end-the-fossil-fue…
Extinction Rebellion launched plans this morning to block major UK oil refineries in April as part of their Rebellion, beginning on April 9th. Although the exact locations are yet to be made public, the group says it intends to ‘stop the harm at the source’ and create enough disruption to force the UK government to commit to Extinction Rebellion’s immediate demand: to stop the fossil fuel economy.

DB2

And in The Netherlands…

Netherlands nearly doubles estimated Groningen gas output to secure supply
www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/netherlands-nearly-doubl…
The Dutch government expects to increase the amount of gas it allows to be produced from the Groningen gas field to up to 7.6 billion cubic meters (BCM), from an earlier estimate of 3.9 BCM.

[However, they are then shutting it down.]

The ministry repeated that it does not currently expect to produce any more gas from Groningen “from mid-2022”.

DB2

Extinction Rebellion releases plan to block UK oil refineries in April

ExxonMobil suspends deliveries from four UK fuel depots due to protests
www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/lates…
ExxonMobil said April 1 it has temporarily suspended operations at four of its UK fuel terminals after environmental protesters blocked depots across the country. Exxon said “small protests” were currently underway outside its Hythe, Birmingham, Purfleet and West London fuel terminals adding that its other fuel terminal at Avonmouth was not affected.

The temporary closure comes at a time of high prices for domestic road transport fuels in the UK and across Europe, especially diesel. ARA diesel cracks reached $47.80/b March 24, weeks after a record $59.20/b March 8th…

The Just Stop Oil group claimed early April 1 that it had blocked key oil terminals at 10 sites across the country

DB2

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The Just Stop Oil group claimed early April 1 that it had blocked key oil terminals at 10 sites across the country

DB2

Oh that should be good for gas prices, I often wonder how the protesters get home after the protest?

Seriously true story from long ago. Listening to AFN while driving down to the PX is southern Germany and they were interviewing an American woman at a protest. She actually said “I felt that stopping the burning of fossil fuel was so important that I drove 600 miles to come to the protest”! Glad I wasn’t sipping a hot coffee at the time? This would have been ~ 1996-7.

Tim

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