At the end of November I had four good-sized positions up over 140% (Shopify, Arista, Square, LGIH), and a smaller position in Kite had been acquired at up over 250%. Now I’m trying to figure out what those stocks will do for an encore next year. Which positions will big winners in 2018? I think all of those four will be up in 2018, but certainly NONE of them will be up 100%!
Which of my other stocks could be up 100% in 2018? No chance, in my opinion for Nvidia, or Splunk. They won’t double. I think Hubspot and Talend will do well, but they won’t double. The same for Wix.
Okay, so which of my holdings are possible doubles? In my opinion, the most likely would be Alteryx and Nectar, but as a small biopharma Nectar could also collapse, so it stays a small position. I’d have to say that Nutanix is a possible, at least.
Do any of you have candidates you’d like to propose for a possible double? I’d be glad for some suggestions.
(By the way, I never expected any of my positions to double this year either.)
Do any of you have candidates you’d like to propose for a possible double? I’d be glad for some suggestions.
Saul:
You want to rest of us to put our necks out there eh?
I am now doing exactly what you are asking…looking over what might have the best opportunities in the coming year. So I a still in the very early superficial landscape mode.
Stocks of interest in this early period are:
SQ - the loan market seems to be a compelling driver to revenue and I like the TA with that pullback from $50.
I actually think Wix could easily double. TTM revenue is 391M. If a year from now that was up 45% to 567M and PS expanded to 9.4, it would be a double. (Maybe PS would have to be a little higher since share count might be higher)
I also like the chances for Talend, Alarm.com, Pure Storage, Hortonworks, The Trade Desk, and Teladoc (which I bought back into a couple weeks ago), but those are smaller positions for me because I’m less confident that things will continue as they have (or improve).
I could even see Shopify doubling, although I don’t predict it. If they could hit 1B in revenue and somehow show a non-GAAP profit of 10%, that would be 100M in profit. They would have to have a PE of 200 to be a double, so it’s not something I’m expecting, but Square’s PE is over 150 now, and they’re not growing as fast.
Obviously, a lot has to go right for any company to double in a year, but I believe these companies are the most “coiled spring” like of the ones I own.
One of my stocks is up 187% since October 25 and I can see it doubling easily in 2018. It is a startup in the remote medical monitoring business waiting for FDA approval of its first product which should happen any day now and which is probably the reason for the current run-up. Because it is a startup, a long shot, I only bought a tiny starter position. I haven’t talked about it because it is a penny stock, my purchase price was $2.65 – now $7.60.
I really like remote medical monitoring because it is at the confluence of healthcare, high tech (IoT), AI, and even current lifestyle. I have a large position in BioTelemetry, Inc. (BEAT), the market leader. It will do well but it won’t double in a year, I don’t think. Biotricity, Inc. (BTCY), on the other hand, could easily double. One more warning, it trades on the OTC market.
I’ve been meaning to do a longer write up for the board, but I think Pure Storage could double next year. They reached $1B in revenue this year and then hired a new CEO who came over from Arista to help them grow from $1B forward. Listening to their calls, they are really sharp guys. They are also getting big into AI and complementing Nvidia.
I’ll try to get around to that write up, maybe this week since work is slowing down for the holidays. But this is definitely one to watch for the next 12 months.
Hi Qlight,
You beat me to the post… agree with you, lots of ifs but doubled my original small stake to 400 shares.
Best of luck and happy holidays to all. Oh, I don’t think they will double but 350 for Anet is a strong possibility. Wouldn’t that be nice.
While we’re talking pot stock, my tiny position in IIPR jumped about 20% last week from apx $20 to apx $24.
What do they do?
It’s a REIT that caters to the medical marijuana business in the US. They buy or build grow facilities and then lease (or lease back) to the grower. So, they’re not really a pot stock, more like a pot infrastructure stock.
Why the sudden bump?
No mystery, they raised their quarterly dividend from $0.16 to $0.25 in the current quarter.
Will they double in 2018?
I seriously doubt it, but I think they have enormous growth in front of them. Probably won’t be explosive until some administration finally rolls back our absurd marijuana legislation which ain’t gonna be this one. Nevertheless, they are the first mover (as far as I know) in this arena. So far, they have been successful and they’ve only been public about a year. Potential growth plus income, what more could you want?
Caveat Emptor . …
Pot is still against federal law in the US. This puts a lot of constraints on financing. All US companies engaged in the pot business either directly as a grower or a marketer as well as indirectly such as a REIT that specializes in marijuana grow facilities can not obtain any bank financing. In order to raise capital they must sell common stock, preferred stock or bonds. No other financing avenues are available to them.
Pure is about to hit profitability in Q4. Throw in sequential growth in profits through next year and we could easily be looking at a double and is now one of my top up candidates.
I would also add Box - another fast growing cloud based company marching towards cash flow positive position and again (like Pure Storage) only 3Bn in market cap as another candidate.
Finally I think Arista, Hubspot or Square could if they demonstrate great leverage with their business. (Talend and TTD are also viable).
I also think some fast growing regional financials could given the upside from IR going up and tax reforms coming through.
Ant
BTW - we might need to think about what constitutes a double in the situation of a capilisation event should companies bring home overseas profits and make one off payments back to Shareholders.
Of the stocks I’m holding, Micron (MU) could double, but I don’t know how long it would stay that high. I’m holding ANET, too, so I hope Ant is right. Maybe Blackberry (which I’m also holding), too, if their software revenue investment thesis holds up, but that’s more speculative.
I think more than one sound retail company will easily double from the lows a while back in the immediate aftermath of Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods. Costco is up nearly 30% since then. Foot Locker is up a little over 50% from its low.
I think all of those four will be up in 2018, but certainly NONE of them will be up 100%!
No chance, in my opinion for Nvidia
Wasn’t that also the conventional wisdom on NVDA this time last year? That it had gone up so much in 2016 there was no way it could continue in 2017 - yet here we are an it’s just about a double.
I have no clue what is going to double next year. I do know companies like Arista and Tesla have a great future in front of them.
I believe that the cannibus business, while producing a non-useful product, produce something useful.
The technology used in grow house is very advanced. Once cannibus becomes a commodity product, the tech will be useful for growing all sorts of things in areas where we could not grow them before.
Here is a pot play Cannibis Science that is currently doing all legal rescearch and also its a medical play.
This company makes cannabis patches for pain relief for fibro mialgia and multiple other uses. I think their future is really ‘lighting up’
Perhaps it’s time for this technology to take hold. Went public in 1969 and was part of the space race era. An extreme small cap around 130 million and just teasing profitability now. They are teamed up with Exxon and a south Korean energy metal giant Posco.
These guys win whether we go electric or hydrogen in the future of personal vehicles.
Their Fuel Cell technology can scrub carbon emissions from coal and gas fired electrical plants and they are partnered with Exxon Mobile in this area.
Also they can be used to capture the billions of cubic feet of natural gas currently burned off in fracking and convert it to electricity.
Finally excess energy from wind and solar can be converted to hydrogen and stored for later reconversion back to electricity.
