The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has proposed new energy efficiency standards that may save consumers up to $11.4 billion on their energy and water bills each year. The Congressionally-mandated proposed standards for residential water heaters align with recommendations from stakeholders, including two of the largest water heater manufacturers and the Consumer Federation of America. The proposal would require the most common-sized electric water heaters to achieve efficiency gains with heat pump technology and gas-fired instantaneous water heaters to achieve efficiency gains through condensing technology.
The standards, which would take effect in 2029 if finalized, are expected to save Americans approximately $198 billion and reduce 501 million metric tons of harmful carbon dioxide emissions cumulatively over 30 years—roughly equivalent to the combined annual emissions of 63 million homes, or approximately 50 percent of homes in the United States, according to DOE estimates. Water heating is responsible for roughly 13% of both annual residential energy use and consumer utility costs. DOE last updated residential water heater efficiency standards, which are required by Congress, in 2010. If adopted within DOE’s proposed timeframe, the new rule—which builds on consensus-based recommendations from a wide range of stakeholders—would apply to new water heater models starting in 2029.
A heat pump water heater is double, sometimes more than the cost of the old style resistance heaters. It does not matter to most consumers that it will be cheaper in the long run, they are going to whine and complain about the extra $500-$1000 it costs upfront.
Depending on which party is in power, expect this rule to be rolled back at some point.
And if you have a gas water heater you potentially have the additional expense of new wires to be run, new breakers to be installed, etc.
Probably a better idea to initially make these standards for new construction (for maybe 5-10 years), that way the production volume goes up and prices come down before replacement units have to comply.
Just like solar panels on the roof and EV in the garage - no whinnying expected in 2029. People had to upgrade their electrical systems for solar panels and EVs.
5.5 years isn’t enough time for production to go from near zero to 100% for heat pump water heaters. It takes a couple of years just to build a factory.
And it is also not enough time for the large number of installers that need to be trained for both the heaters themselves and the additional electrical wiring.
That’s why phasing it in, new construction first and then some years later all replacement units is more likely to be a smoother transition
I think the our nation can do a lot better than 5.5 years for getting factories built, training installers and mandating these new heaters for new construction in 2029. I agree that replacements can be phased a year later. These new heaters can be installed before 2029 if some customers want to start saving money sooner.
Just look at CA.
About 14 million homes and 79% have gas water heaters, so 8% (over 1.1M) get replaced each year if they last 10 years. Meanwhile only about 123,000 new homes are built each year. Mandating replacement units before ramping up new construction is just asking for trouble.
sources: google
Training enough people to install 123K new construction water heaters, not a big issue since a few delays aren’t a big deal. But when your water heater fails and you can’t get one or get someone trained to install a replacement for weeks it would be a big deal.
5.5 years isn’t enough time for production to go from near zero to 100% for heat pump water heaters. It takes a couple of years just to build a factory.
And it is also not enough time for the large number of installers that need to be trained for both the heaters themselves and the additional electrical wiring.
The key phrase from the presser was:
…proposed standards for residential water heaters align with recommendations from stakeholders
Translation: The manufacturers are already on board. This is similar to the LED bulb imbroglio a few years back. The manufacturers were all on board, made the critical investments, and were planning on the transition to LEDs. But once the deadline got near the smooth brains panicked and wanted to block it fearing that LED lighting might lower their utility bills. But the pushback came from the manufacturers who had already committed. There was no way they were going to go back to the old incandescent bulbs.
In this case, tankless, condensing, and heat pump water heaters are more expensive than the old tank models, so the manufacturers are happy to upgrade. I doubt they would be willing to walk this back at this point. And although it is an upfront cost to consumers, ultimately they benefit too.
Re: wiring. After checking Google, it looks like most next gen heaters work on good old fashioned 15 or 20 circuits, just like the old water heaters. I don’t see this as an obstacle.
In CA, just as an example, 79% of homes have a gas water heater (53% nationwide), thus no electrical circuit. A new dedicated line needs to be run from the breaker panel. Is that an obstacle?
Not insurmountable. I can easily afford this additional cost and hassle. But it is easily an extra $500, maybe $1000 or more to install a breaker and the wiring. And maybe an extra delay. Maybe two person crew instead of one.
The biggest problem is that heat pump hot water heaters are currently a huge ripoff. They charge $2000 for a device that is a simpler hot water heater (usually only 1 backup heating element) plus a small compressor with heat exchanger. If a regular electric hot water heater (2 4500W elements) costs $500, there is no reason why a heat pump hot water heater should cost anything over $1000.
I got lucky a few years ago and bought a heat pump hot water heater that was on sale for a ridiculously low price (the total price was pretty close to the cost of shipping it to me that they paid for!) because the company was closing down. Of course, I have no warranty and have to fix stuff myself, but still, that hot water heater has saved me $20-30 a month for the last 8 years or so. One of the best investments into my home ever, probably the best.
Installation is another story. A heat pump HWH needs an electric circuit, usually 30A, and it needs a condensate drain attached. That’s one change from current electric HWHs, and two changes from gas HWHs. Installation for replacing gas with electric heat pump HWH could easily cost over $1000. So at today’s ripoff price of $2000+ for the device plus $1000+ for the install, means that very few people are going to choose it right now. That’s why a gradual increase in production would be the best idea. Start now - install 1M this year, 2M next year, 10M in 2028/29, and by then the prices will have moderated, and installer will be plentiful, so hopefully the price will have dropped to under $1000 for the unit, and well under $1000 for the install. That will attract MANY people to switch over. Otherwise, we will see the perverse outcome of people constantly repairing old, inefficient, HWHs because they don’t want to pay the $3000+ for a new efficient one. Heck, we may even see a black market in 4500W/5500W heating elements.
