The CME FedWatch forecast says the target rate acceleration is over! — target rate deceleration is forecast to begin in September:
75bps in July
50bps in September
25bps in November
25bps in December
0bps in February
Conventional thinking is that recession will automatically put out the inflationary “fire,” but unconventional thinking is that inflation is raging like never before, and it will take a deep and unprecedented deflationary depression to stop the dollar from burning to ashes.
Is the Fed capable of navigating us through the tremendous economic storms that lie ahead? — let us hope so!
Perhaps it will rightly be said that the Fed foundered in a storm of it’s own making.
Unlike dollars that are made of cotton and linen, gold melts but it doesn’t burn.
Please post a link whenever you cite a source. Where did you get the CME FedWatch forecast? I want to read the whole thing for myself.
<Unlike dollars that are made of cotton and linen, gold melts but it doesn’t burn. >
That’s true, but the vast majority of dollars in existence are electronic notations, not cotton or linen. And gold is certainly forever, but you still can’t walk into a store and pay for food with gold. You have to convert it into physical or electronic cash, which will cost you for the exchange.
Perhaps it will rightly be said that the Fed foundered in a storm of it’s own making.
Not in my NSHO.
The worldwide pandemic shut down economies which could have caused a worldwide depression.
Instead, money was pumped into the economy (mainly via the Fed balance sheet) to avoid a depression.
With zero interest rates, all the free money caused asset bubbles because with zero interest rates, what other options do you have?
As the economy stumbles back, there were too many dollars chasing too few goods; inflation.
So now the fed pulls back dollars and increases interest rates to stop inflation. Bubbles deflate. So we’re probably headed towards a recession, hopefully mild.
None of this should be the least bit of a surprise. And the Fed didn’t cause it, they navigated through it. Perfectly? No. But ask a hundred economists their opinion and you’ll get three hundred different opinions.
I have no doubt many on this board will disagree with me, but I think the Fed has done a decent job (so far) handling a once in a lifetime (I hope) worldwide economic crisis.
Unlike dollars that are made of cotton and linen, gold melts but it doesn’t burn.
A small amount of gold belongs in any diversified portfolio, but it’s a horrible long term investment. By the way, how can I acquire gold from those who treasure it? By trading my cotton and linen for it.
Gold is an extremely risky play at this point. We are in a long term cycle bear market for gold. But more immediately the USD strength is really bad for gold and all resources. https://schrts.co/JghzBfIh
Perhaps you should look at things before making statements.
Hopefully you will stop misleading people here if they listen to you.
Gold is a commodity which responds to deflationary fears of currency collapse. It is not a boat to relax in, but a lifeboat in times of need. You shouldn’t invest in gold to “make” money, but rather to use its protection of value as an emergency support. Call it an insurance policy or hedge, if you like.
Gold is a commodity which responds to deflationary fears of currency collapse. It is not a boat to relax in, but a lifeboat in times of need. You shouldn’t invest in gold to “make” money, but rather to use its protection of value as an emergency support. Call it an insurance policy or hedge, if you like.
Are there any recent periods of time in which this actually worked? Seems almost like ALL assets are getting more and more correlated to each other as time passes, even when it is counterintuitive.