ARK - Cathy Woods

This is a very good video. If you cannot spend the time to listen, read the transcript.

While she acknowledges that she did not foresee a couple of important MACRO events, the invasion of Ukraine, and China’s latest COVID shutdown, she points out that we have already gone through one quarter of declining GDP, one more and we got ourselves a recession.

She also points out that oil has already declined and is seeing signs of “labor disgorgement” and interesting way of saying “lots if lay offs coming quickly”

She also makes a case for a lot less inflation than we are projecting.

While she has been wrong, she makes the case that this will
pass. Her arguments make me rethink my bullish stance on labor.



She also makes a case for a lot less inflation than we are projecting.

She has been saying that for quite a while…

While the Fed waffles from “Inflation is transitory” to “No, it’s permanent” some analysts see further out and don’t waffle. Cathy Wood says that technology is deflationary. Dave Rosenberg cites three deflationary forces,…

The difficulty with these predictions are their time frames. Technology deflation is slow and steady. Fed printing is shorter lived but more intensive. So they can all be right in their time frames which might not be our timeframes! If only Complex Systems were simpler!

Right now the strong dollar is reducing my Portuguese rent in dollar terms!

The Captain
if only Complex Systems were simple!