Hi Ears,
Today, 5/10/2022, UPST stock price closed at $33.61, a drastic drop of 56.4%.
On his board, Champico33 posted: If the company [UPST] somehow manages to survive through the year and comes out with a pulse after any recession, then it might be worth another look.
Ears response: They’ve most recently guided for 47% top-line growth in 2022 instead of the previous guide of 67% growth. Looks like they expect positive cash flow. Loans on the balance sheet they claim not an issue. When you say manage to survive, do you mean if they manage to meet these new targets, or are you seeing some scenario where they go under this year?
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I previously posted here, a Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, CFA statement: The value of a financial asset is the present value of future cash flows. If you don’t believe that, please put this aside and resume your normal daily activities. If you do believe that, you recognize that you have to grapple with an assessment of the magnitude and timing of cash flows as well as the appropriate rate at which to discount them.
https://discussion.fool.com/hi-ears-ive-been-looking-forward-to-…
Since cash flow is the living “blood” of a company, I look forward to your ongoing analysis and assessment of UPST that pinpoint symptoms that caused and manifested in today’s stock price crash.
In medical terms, did UPST suffer:
(a) a Stroke?
Sometimes called a brain attack, a stroke occurs when something blocks blood supply to part of the brain or when a blood vessel in the brain bursts.
In either case, parts of the brain become damaged or die. A stroke can cause lasting brain damage, long-term disability, or even death.
(b) a Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA or “mini-stroke”)?
A TIA is a warning sign of a future stroke.
A TIA is a medical emergency, just like a major stroke.
Strokes and TIAs require emergency care. Call 9-1-1 right away if you feel signs of a stroke or see symptoms in someone around you.
There is no way to know in the beginning whether symptoms are from a TIA or from a major type of stroke.
Like ischemic strokes, blood clots often cause TIAs.
More than a third of people who have a TIA and don’t get treatment have a major stroke within 1 year. As many as 10% to 15% of people will have a major stroke within 3 months of a TIA.
Recognizing and treating TIAs can lower the risk of a major stroke. If you have a TIA, your health care team can find the cause and take steps to prevent a major stroke.
(c) a Heart Attack? A heart attack happens when the flow of oxygen-rich blood in one or more of the coronary arteries, which supply the heart muscle, suddenly becomes blocked, and a section of heart muscle can’t get enough oxygen. The blockage is usually caused when a plaque ruptures.
(d) a Cardiac Arrest? When a person’s heart stops beating, they are in cardiac arrest. During cardiac arrest, the heart cannot pump blood to the rest of the body, including the brain and lungs. Death can happen in minutes without treatment. CPR uses chest compressions to mimic how the heart pumps.
Prevention. Reduce your risk of sudden cardiac arrest by getting regular checkups, being screened for heart disease and living a heart-healthy lifestyle.
Most SCA (Sudden Cardiac Arrest) victims survive if they get help very quickly. But SCA is fatal 95% of the time. “Only about 5% of those who have a sudden cardiac arrest survive long enough to get to — and then be discharged from — the hospital alive,” notes cardiologist Bruce Wilkoff, MD, an expert in heart rhythm disorders.
(e) None of the above, something else.
I am not a medical doctor, but predict TIA for UPST.
Regards,
Ray