Drill 'Em All, Big and Small

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Meanwhile, vague promises of tariffs on imported oil and gas, around Feb 18th. No clarity if imports from countries other than Canada and Mexico are planned.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-vows-tariff-chips-oil-gas-2025-01-31/

Steve…drives an economy car, in relative terms

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42

Food prices go up, trucking rates go up (as does ALL transportation), and rents go up. Fingers all will be pointed at the cause in DC.

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43

It is not that simple. You need to have pipelines and other way to ship oil. Where Canadian Oil goes, you don’t have pipeline from Texas. I sincerely hope, Canada and Mexico don’t blink and instead slap retaliatory tariffs.
Yes, it will be painful for US in the short-term, but that’s the only way to rein-in an out of control president and subservient congress.

We need stability, not waking up to chaos everyday.

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44

The problem is, unless we go on massive refinery rebuilding spree, we will import the oil, tariff or no tariff. we cannot use the light sweet crude from the shale fields. So tariffs across the board might cause two problems.

  1. Higher costs for refined products in the USA. ie gasoline diesel fuel, and to a lessor extent plastics and other advanced petrochemicals. Plastic for example uses raw feed stocks from propane (an oil derivative) and methane which is natural gas. It is not as simple as that as much of the feed stock is indirect as it is by product from other refining processes.
  2. The refined petrochemical products we export might become less competitive or they might be single source and drive inflation in other economies. It might do nothing, so I am not sure.

Oil is NOT oil is oil is oil. Generally it is fungible at the macro scale, but at the local scale it is not. All oil is processed locally.

Cheers
Qazulight

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45

He can ask for a beljoney from MBS too, that doesn’t mean he’ll get jack squat.

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Yeap. And my medium sour oil wells in Wyoming are pumping less (they are ancient) while the futures contracts are telling me bounty is coming.

Isn’t chaos fun?

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Update - BLM oil and gas auctions are off to an amazing start in CO -

"Going once, going twice, sold to … no one.

On Thursday, the Bureau of Land Management auctioned off leases on more than 20,000 acres of public land in Colorado for oil and gas drilling. The land, divided into 23 parcels, was offered at the minimum starting price, just $10 an acre, and could be leased indefinitely once oil and gas starts flowing.

But during the sale: crickets. Not a single parcel received a bid, and only two companies had even registered for the sale."

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48

August 12 2025

Looks like we are below $65:

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49

Sounds like a good time to start refilling the SPR.

DB2

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50

[quote=“eldemonio, post:1, topic:112595”]
Shifting gears to EVs. Full disclosure, I’m not the CEO of an auto manufacturer. If I were, the joy derived from deregulation would be overshadowed by the uncertainty being shoved up my arse. Should I continue to develop EVs
[/quote]

I bet US auto CEOs are looking at importing Chinese EVs. I don’t think US consumers will tolerate paying triple the price for US-made vehicles.

intercst

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51

Labor costs at Telsa two or three years from now will plumment. Robots.

Most corporations and the economy have time. That is the point of being in business.

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