Stay away from energy if we go into Recession

Not even a minute into the piece, and he’s already wrong. TIG did not suddenly “pivot” to tariffs after taking office. He was praising tariffs for months, as the center piece of both bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and as a means to raise revenue to replace the income tax.

The “energy” stocks he denigrates are all oilfield services, not big oil.

The last half of the piece, the guy is talking about stocks on their tout list.

Steve

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yep

Also in the wind Trump is looking for producers to slow production. He does not need a glut on the market.

That is the real drop in profit. The slowing usage volume. Slowing demand.

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Why not? It would lower gasoline prices (which are already pretty reasonable).

DB2

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Do you own oil stocks? :laughing:

Gasoline prices are amazing. I can get diesel for $3.23 a gallon here. Haven’t seen that since the pandemic.

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LOL 2020 just about 5 years late.

Ayup, the second and third largest producers of oil in the US. And I have a position in Flowserve, because you can’t move oil very efficiently, without pumps.

The trick is to take other people’s production off line. TIG has already threatened Iran’s oil exports, 1.5Mbpd. It is not outside the realm that he could cut off imports from Canada, as Canada can’t get it to other markets, until they build more pipeline capacity. That’s over 3Mbpd off the market. Chatter on the news tonight that sanctions on Russia, for not submitting to him wrt Ukraine, could include operations against the tanker fleet that is carrying Russian oil. That’s 3Mbpd. Iraq was producing 2.6Mbpd before the US invaded. We remember what happened to prices when Iraqi production was disrupted.

Remember recent history. TIG is Putin’s boy, except when it comes to oil and gas. TIG was telling western Europe to buy US LNG, rather than take gas via Nord Stream II.

Steve

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I thought we already found that not to be true.

They sell to India and China, good luck with stopping that.

Three gas stations in a Twin Cities suburb selling gas in a range under $2.30/gallon. One is a Costco, the others are not. No idea on diesel.

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Unfortunately Costco doesn’t sell Diesel or I would buy it there because they always have good prices. But 2.30 is amazing.

They can ship some oil out of British Columbia but in a relatively small amount. And zero LNG capability.

DB2

But they also use trains. They do about 120,000 barrels per day by train and that is a 7 year low so that will go up huge. Their refineries can do about 1.9 million barrels per day. They are also developing their shipment of LNG which will come on line in a few months.

As DB said, that one pipe to the coast is limited, iirc something between 800-900,000bpd. Canada exports 4Mbpd.

Here is TIG, today, saying the US does not need Canadian energy.

Steve

Their pipeline capacity is 4.67 MMb/D unless you think that the United States will not take their oil after this.

That was exactly my point. The vast majority of the Canadian pipeline network goes to the US. If Keystone XL had been built, Canada would be even more dependent on a capricious US. Implicit in what TIG said in that clip is that, if he wants to really squeeze Canada, he can cut off all imports from Canada. TIG is building a siege mentality in the US, so that any hardships suffered are seen as worth it to punish the foreigners who have been “ripping off” the US.

Steve

Ok but Steve he is saying the only way to lift the Tariffs is if Canada becomes the 51st state. He said that today. I can’t believe anyone voted for this. Anyone? Anyone. Was Canada becoming the 51st state on your bingo card?

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What he has been saying is that becoming the “51st state” would eliminate the tariffs. Total surrender of everything short of their own government, would be another way to end the trade war, at least until he imposes terms so draconian that the Canadians do surrender their government and their sovereignty.

Steve

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No he actually wants them to surrender their government and sovereignty. That is what he said today. The crazy just keeps getting crazier.

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