I think XOM and CVT are much lower than 1 and 2. Aramco is 1, Rosneft use to be 2 but may not be anymore. XOM and CVT are in the 6 to 10 range.
From Chevron latest annual report:
Worldwide net oil-equivalent production was 3.01 million barrels per day in fourth quarter 2022
and 3.00 million barrels per day for the full-year 2022. Both quarterly and annual production
were down 3 percent compared to their respective 2021 periods. International production
decreased 7 percent in 2022 primarily due to the end of concessions in Thailand and Indonesia,
This does not look like a company increasing production.
XOM often say they will increase production. History shows that is not often the case. XOM may increase liquid production in the next couple of years with Guyana, but then I expect it to be the same story in a couple of years, no production increase,
For XOM, annual liquid production figures. Note, 2022 is about the same as 2015, 2016, 2019 and 2020.
Net liquids production of ExxonMobil from 2014 to 2022
Production in thousand barrels per day
I agree with your statement about developing nations needing more energy (And, of course, rapidly developing nations with an insatiable thirst for energy: China, India, Mexico, etc.), but the point was about declining developed nations demand. Developing nations will require more energy, my thoughts are that it will come from refined products no longer required in developed nations and wind, solar etc. etc., not from fossil fuels that require additional refineries and fossil fueled power plants.