DRUCKENMILLER>>>GOAT>GOING TO GET WO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ

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Can we suggest you join the consensus on the board not to post naked links without a precis of what content one will find if clicking?
Especially video, which is a time sucker.
And not yelling in all caps, though that’s just a style suggestion : )

It takes you 30 seconds to add it, and saves 3 minutes for 100 other people.
The world is a better place.
This isn’t twitter.

Jim

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Jim:

I’ve said before, but bears repeating: than you for your patience and civility, or what would in a previous era have been called good breeding or gentlemanly.

My grandparents (passed in late 70s) would have been aghast at what we have today; my Dad (1997) would be angry.

Having a grownup in the room never stops being helpful

—sutton

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https://www.gocomics.com/pearlsbeforeswine/2022/05/22

what he said

—sutton

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And not yelling in all caps, though that’s just a style suggestion : )

I realize this sounded snide.
Not at all, just attempting levity–
Really, just a request that folks consider saying what’s at a link.

Jim

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https://www.gocomics.com/pearlsbeforeswine/2022/05/22

Fine line there, watch what you post! Could be construed as the P word.

My off-topic off-thread-topic quote of the day, for which I will likely get in deep trouble:

Voltaire:
"Il y a eu des gens qui ont dit autrefois : Vous croyez des choses
incompréhensibles, contradictoires, impossibles, parce que nous
vous l’avons ordonné ; faites donc des choses injustes parce que
nous vous l’ordonnons. Ces gens-là raisonnaient à merveille.
Certainement qui est en droit de vous rendre absurde est en droit
de vous rendre injuste. Si vous n’opposez point aux ordres de croire
l’impossible l’intelligence que Dieu a mise dans votre esprit, vous
ne devez point opposer aux ordres de malfaire la justice que Dieu a
mise dans votre cœur. Une faculté de votre âme étant une fois
tyrannisée, toutes les autres facultés doivent l’être également."

My translation:
“There have been people who said in the past, ‘You believe things that are
incomprehensible, contradictory, impossible, because we have commanded you to do so;
so do some unjust things because we command you to do so’.
These people were reasoning wonderfully.
Certainly whoever has the right to make you absurd has the right to make you unjust.
If you do not oppose the orders to believe the impossible with the intelligence
that God has put in your mind, you must not oppose the orders to do wrong
with the justice that God has put in your heart. With one faculty of your
soul having been tyrannised, all the other faculties must be as well.”

Jim

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Jim:

I like it, thanks. Going in my Quotations file.

Yours is unfortunately too long for a sampler, but we do have “Le enfer, c’est les autres” on a throw pillow in the living room.

(Slightly mangled Sartre: “Hell is other people”)

Let’s just say we don’t entertain much.

-sutton

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Yeah, I blocked him after reading three posts.

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it is usually the same ol’

sky is falling

and why no one has any stock picks

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Few points:

1). Druckenmiller has a better long term track record in public securities markets than WEB>>I suggest you pay attention

2). He is implying that this MAY be far worse 2008-2009. Tired of the same old drivel about the banking system being in good shape. The size and bursting of the biggest credit bubble of all time MAY trump this.

3). A YouTube link/and or interview of Druckenmiller, which is rare, is all the prelude or explanation you need. Not a time suck. How about a thank you.

4). I am the only one screaming about fat pitches. Not I like BRKB but it is just OK

JBGS, LILAK, GOOGL, BRKB (at Friday’s close)EVVTY are all screaming buys

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DBB: Thanks for the video link and for your four explanatory points. If you will put such points with your original posts, that will help the board.

Not I like BRKB but it is just OK

JBGS, LILAK, GOOGL, BRKB (at Friday’s close)EVVTY are all screaming buys

I don’t understand what you’re trying to say here. BRKB is both “just OK” and a “screaming buy?” Which is it?

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Few points:

1). Druckenmiller has a better long term track record in public securities markets than WEB>>I suggest you pay attention

2). He is implying that this MAY be far worse 2008-2009. Tired of the same old drivel about the banking system being in good shape. The size and bursting of the biggest credit bubble of all time MAY trump this.

3). A YouTube link/and or interview of Druckenmiller, which is rare, is all the prelude or explanation you need. Not a time suck. How about a thank you.

4). I am the only one screaming about fat pitches. Not I like BRKB but it is just OK

JBGS, LILAK, GOOGL, BRKB (at Friday’s close)EVVTY are all screaming buys

I’m trying to reconcile Point #1 with Point #4. Am I to conclude that I should put my hard earned money behind the anonymous username “DetroitBadBoy” rather than Druckenmiller and WEB? Forgive me for passing.

Anonymous username advice should be reserved for gamblers not investors.

jk

3 Likes

PRICE

PRICE

Price

Friday’s close

I like it, thanks. Going in my Quotations file.
Yours is unfortunately too long for a sampler…

If it helps, there is this more popular, shorter, rough translation:
“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities”

Unfortunately I know of no way to bring up the topic without breaching the sensible no-politics rule of thumb,
but let’s just say I think there is material jurisdiction risk in holding shares of Berkshire.
I’m spending time thinking about what else might make a good core holding in the same way.
If we could keep it non-partisan it might be worth discussion. But there isn’t, so we shan’t.

Jim

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Jim: Unfortunately I know of no way to bring up the topic without breaching the sensible no-politics rule of thumb,
but let’s just say I think there is material jurisdiction risk in holding shares of Berkshire.
I’m spending time thinking about what else might make a good core holding in the same way.
If we could keep it non-partisan it might be worth discussion. But there isn’t, so we shan’t.

[Bolding mine]

I’ve been away for a couple of weeks…did I miss something very important?

Jim is down on Berkshire, down on the USA, and is looking for an alternative?

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Jim is down on Berkshire, down on the USA, and is looking for an alternative?

That’s not how I’d sum it up. “Down on the USA” sounds like I’m throwing shade.

How to phrase it delicately?
I wish to be prepared for the immense negative impact on US businesses in general that
would likely arise from certain potential future news items I see as sufficiently
likely that I cannot in good conscience leave my family as exposed to them as we currently are.
I do not as yet know how I’m going to manage that.

Most people are surprised to learn that news items affect market prices remarkably little, even the things you expect to be huge.
The Sept 11 attacks are entirely invisible on charts if you close the gap from the days the markets were shut.
But there are limits to that rule of thumb: stock prices ultimately follow business results,
which are ultimately tied to the economy within which they are embedded.

Jim

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What are the table pounding buys given Druckenmiller’s comments?

Crickets

there is material jurisdiction risk in holding shares of Berkshire.

I do not as yet know how I’m going to manage that.

By replacing part of your US investment/Berkshire by Nestlé, plus if you require more diversification maybe a bit of Aussie mining companies and Kiwi Timber (low correlation with stocks/bonds)?

1 Like

How to phrase it delicately?
I wish to be prepared for the immense negative impact on US businesses in general that would likely arise from certain potential future news items I see as sufficiently likely that I cannot in good conscience leave my family as exposed to them as we currently are …

Most people are surprised to learn that news items affect market prices remarkably little, even the things you expect to be huge …

But there are limits to that rule of thumb: stock prices ultimately follow business results, which are ultimately tied to the economy within which they are embedded.

You seem to be suggesting that there is political risk in the US that could materially impact business results, but I’m having a hard time understanding what that ”certain potential future news” might be. Short of civil war or a Great Depression, American business seems to be chugging along just fine through civil strife through the decades. If it’s civil strife or the threat of authoritarianism, what’s happening here is happening everywhere. Hell, Europe is embroiled in a ground war that could mushroom into something much worse in no time.

What’s the apocalyptic news forthcoming that would batter the citadel of fortress Berkshire?

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What’s the apocalyptic news forthcoming that would batter the citadel of fortress Berkshire?

What if the war between USA/NATO and the Russian Federation is escalated? Even if it is only at the economic-sanction level?