Druckenmiller’s time-out after doubling his losses was helpful, and that is what i had to do.
And if you don’t want to go that far, there is always a modified limited hangout available for political and social media. Ever since September of 2020 I have limited my exposure to all the crazies in the media. I hear enough to know what is going on, but I don’t get much of the “the world is coming to an end because of ----------- so send me money or continue to listen to my rantings so I can help you protect yourself.” It is a pretty good protection from all the nuts that just want to keep me troubled so they can earn some of my time or money. I can testify that such modified limited hangout works.
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Did anyone consider maybe Mungofitch is just a crazy left wing nutcase? Don’t worry November is getting real close!
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<but I’m having a hard time understanding what that ”certain potential future news” might be.>
Let’s start guessing:
- Trump will win presidency again and go after enemies really hard, potentially trigger a civil war and breakup of the country.
- More and more countries will use other currencies than US dollar for trade and reserve, potentially trigger a collapse of US dollar value, and a great depression.
- Russia will prevail in Ukraine war, and major European countries start mending fences with Russia, potentially causing a breakup of NATO and decline of US supremacy.
- US will go to war with China over Taiwan, marking the beginning of the end…
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The rationale given is unnecessary and unnecessarily alarmist. I’m no great fan of the state of
American politics and society at this historical moment, but I would have said that same thing, for
pretty much the same reasons, anytime over the past three quarters of a century…
While America looks to be on a precipice at the moment, truth be told it has always looked to be on the precipice…
despite all the doom and gloom of American politics and society, America has remained the most powerful and successful capitalist economy on earth…
I fully realize that the market climbs a wall of worry, and there always seem to be horrible things to worry about, and the general rule is that they never matter in the long run.
In living memory, the pessimists deserved the mockery given them by those with a longer view.
But bear in mind I’m not concerned about anything as trivial in impact as anything that has happened in the last 80 years.
Trivial in the sense of their impact on those dependent on the US economy.
Thinking of Mr Buffett’s oft repeated admonition never to bet against America–he has been right to date, but I’m sure we can all agree that “never” is a long time.
It is absolutely without question that the US has been the place that has treated capitalists the best in the last 150 years,
both because of the strong economy on which they depend and the fraction of the resultant spoils they get.
But that is not a law of nature. More likely it’s just an era. Eras can end.
As the saying goes, Americans are proud of their future in much the same way that other countries are proud of their pasts. But the future hasn’t actually happened yet.
Sure, the most likely situation is that this economic titan will continue long after I’m gone.
I merely decided it is no longer something I would bet my last dime on.
My assessment is that it is simply too likely that the rule of law, which has been to date been very reliable for rich people, will flat out fail.
Sure, Berkshire is likely to survive all kinds of horrible things. I don’t really doubt that to any great degree.
Barring the ever-present risks of nationalization, breakup, or confiscatory judicial moves.
But I like it because to date I have considered it pretty much a sure thing that value per share would rise at 7%/year or better over time.
If real value per share rises at (say) 4% a year for the rest of my life because something nearby is badly broken,
or suffers a permanent loss in value of 30%+, mere survival isn’t enough to make it a compelling place to keep my money.
It might well remain the best house on the block even if the neighbourhood goes downhill. But I might check out some other neighbourhoods.
Jim
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To me MKL is a great buy here around 1290. I bought at 1304 and 1298 today and am looking to buy more