Dry bulk shipping: What about China?

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Golden Ocean (GOGL) reported their Q3 2023 results today (11/21). To my knowledge, they are one of the last US-listed dry bulkers to report their Q3 results. Together with Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK), they are the only two pure-play dry bulk shipping companies each with over 85 vessels.

Star Bulk (SBLK) reported their results last week. Though the SBLK fleet of over 120 vessels has different variety of vessels, the company just reported the average across all our vessel types as $15,068 daily. If one knows about shipping they might be able to deduce something about the market in Q3 2023. But there was not as much macro stuff to digest.

OTOH, Golden Ocean (GOGL) parse their data into two vessel categories
Cape avg $18,173 daily
Panamax avg $15,389 daily
Overall avg $17076 daily

In their earnings call, there was some helpful Macro stuff

  • China as world’s largest steel producer - 56% of world output
  • “Contrary to negative macro news, China’s steel production is up 2% year-on-year with a solid 4.5% increase in Q3.”
  • Although property investment (am assuming residential real estate) is down 9%, GOGL point to areas where investments have gone up (technology-intensive manufacturing and energy transition with infrastructure up 9%, private manufacturing up 6%)
  • There’s more. Car exports, steel exports. Etc
  • Data on a “newer” Bauxite market and its “advantages”
  • Good read

On a personal note, a token GOGL position was doubled on 11/20 (luck favors the prepared :slight_smile: )

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HOHUM

Thank you again.

I have never taken any immediate nor decisive decision based off one of your posts, but I find that as a whole your simple reports have provided me with immensely valuable highly reliable world economic information that I now know is crucial to my orientation as to what the hell is really going on.

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@ David,
Thanks for the kind words.

There is a lot of data of all types out there. Sometimes it is useful to parse through it and figure if one can make better sense with some of it.

[Edit: Should try and explain my point in the OP better, so the above makes sense. GOGL have close to 90 vessels - Yet the company does not take the easy way out and just say the our fleet TCE avg is $17,076 daily. Instead they parse the data into vessel categories also. If a company takes the effort to do something extra like that, I am going to spend time reading their reports & comments because the company likely has additional tid-bits to share]

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