Dusky Sparrow colored swan wings flapping

[captainccs]

@steve203

Debbie Schlussel (born April 9, 1969) is an American attorney, author, political commentator, movie critic, TV host, and blogger.

Not much of a reference. Lots of loose cannons out there. This one seems to live off click bait.

The Captain

[captainccs]

@buynholdisdead

I think you guys are defining a Black Swan as…

The term “Black Swan” was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Look up his definition.

What Is a Black Swan?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.

Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

Black Swan in the Stock Market: What Is It, With Examples and History.

The Captain

[MarkR]

@steve203

Netanyahu says he is going to leverage this event to “change the Middle East”. What would that “change” be? I’m thinking a strong dose of “ethnic cleansing”, maybe to the ragged edge of genocide: drive out, or kill, every Pal in Gaza and the West Bank.

That’s not what the vast majority understand the statement to mean. The common understanding is that the primary goal is to substantially reduce Iranian hegemony in the region.

Also, Netanyahu will have to resign (permanently) shortly after the war is over. Israel forgives their prime ministers/politicians for nearly everything, but one thing they do not forgive is egregious failures of security. Just like Golda Meir resigned after the failures in the Yom Kippur war, Netanyahu will have to resign after the Simchat Torah war (this one).

[buynholdisdead]

@captainccs

Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

Thanks Captain. So the war in Israel right now is a black swan event. At least for the people in Israel it is.

Andy

[steve203]

@MarkR

Netanyahu will have to resign after the Simchat Torah war (this one).

Will the war end before his criminal trial for corruption ends?

Steve

[pauleckler]

@steve203

Netanyahu says he is going to leverage this event to “change the Middle East”.

Will he be able to destroy Hamas? Their removal from Gaza could make a big difference.

His call up of 300K reservists makes you think he has something big in mind.

[steve203]

@pauleckler

Will he be able to destroy Hamas? Their removal from Gaza could make a big difference.

An IDF spokesperson was on Amanpour last night. He said the objective is to destroy Hamas’ military capability, forever. Other Israeli honchos have talked about an operation that will be remembered for decades.

Given that Hamas’ military capability comes from the ranks of disaffected people in Gaza, the only way I see to destroy Hamas, is, as suggested earlier, “ethnic cleansing” of Gaza, driving all the Pals into Egypt, and level the place so it is uninhabitable,

There was an event in metro Detroit last night. The Gov and a Senator were there, proclaiming they stand with Israel. Wonder what they will say if Israeli action takes the ethnic cleansing/genocide turn that I fear?

Steve

[DrBob2]

@steve203

He said the objective is to destroy Hamas’ military capability, forever.

In addition they could eject Hamas. The PLO and Yasser Arafat were kicked out of Jordon and later Lebanon.

DB2

[steve203]

@DrBob2

The PLO and Yasser Arafat were kicked out of Jordon and later Lebanon.

I remember the Jordanian army and PLO going at it. That was decades ago. As for expelling the PLO from Lebanon, the space was filled by other groups.

We old phartz remember when the Israelis occupied southern Lebanon, right up to the burbs of Beirut. Then the Israeli troops stood aside while a Christian militia went into a Pal neighborhood and killed everyone they could get their hands on.

Steve

[Leap1]

@steve203

If the US does anything to Hamas, will we be tossed out of Qatar?

Qatar works with everyone. It is the ultimate poser state. The Saudis hate their government. Qatar is the ultimate pain. But do anything? Then SA can invade Qatar. We might help them.

This is like the British dividing up India. The Indians did most of the fighting for the Brits.

[pauleckler]

@steve203

the only way I see to destroy Hamas, is, as suggested earlier, “ethnic cleansing” of Gaza,

I think the Israelis will be careful to avoid being accused of genocide. That means giving warning–asking people to leave–before they attack.

A lot of Palestenians are saying they have no where to go when interviewed on TV.

I wish someone would ask them about Hamas. Why is it there? Why do they tolerate it? Why don’t the voters expell them?

Two state solution is still probably the best possible outcome. Some say the Palestenians should be placed in a reservation maybe similar to what was done with the American Indians. The current war is a likely outcome of that policy–as it was for American Indians too for years.

[Goofyhoofy]

@pauleckler

I wish someone would ask them about Hamas. Why is it there? Why do they tolerate it? Why don’t the voters expell them?

Suppose you lived with only one source of news and information. And that source constantly told you there was one group that hated you, probably wanted to kill you, that they were like rats, that they are the source of all your troubles. Suppose everyone in your culture believed them and told you the same thing. Suppose this had been going on your entire life, that your life was miserable even as you saw pictures of others living it up, buying blue jeans at well stocked stores, and having fun at picnics and amusement parks.

Why, you’d be just like a rural American watching Fox News, or a Palestinian living in Gaza. You would hate, and you would abide the haters because you would be one yourself, albeit perhaps without the will to actively participate in an armed uprising.

[steve203]

@pauleckler

I wish someone would ask them about Hamas. Why is it there? Why do they tolerate it? Why don’t the voters expell them?

Why didn’t the Catholics of Ulster drive out the IRA, instead of enduring decades of terrorism?

Steve

[WilliB]

@Goofyhoofy

no one foresaw the hijacking of full fueled airliners and using them as bomb delivery devices.

Actually that was discussed on the Motley Fool boards several months before the attacks. A lot of people anticipated it, but no one was ready to believe it or prepare for it.