Iran has launched over 100 drones and an unknown number of cruise missiles at Israel.
Depending on where they were launched from, the drones/missiles, look like they will fly over countries like Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or Lebanon.
What could possibly go wrong?
And then of course, how will Israel react to this?
Sigh.
On one hand, Iran’s ambassador to the UN has tweeted (and Iran state media has confirmed the authenticity) that this attack is in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria and that this is the extent of Iran’s response unless Israel responds with more attacks on Iran. That would SEEM to indicate this could be interpreted as Iran submliminally stating that this attack was REQUIRED to address internal politics and there’s NOTHING else coming so there’s no need to counter this counterattack for the original Israeli attack. WE’RE EVEN, right?
On the other, if these drones hit anything AT ALL inside Israel, Netanyahu will be under even MORE pressure to “do something” to counter-attack. He is already under more pressure because Hamas has confirmed they cannot find all of the supposed remaining hostages – they never had control of them so they cannot use them as bargaining chips. That means Netanyahu has nothing to show Israeli citizens as compensation for lightening up attacks on Gaza. If Netanyahu escalates this theatre, he will be sapping Israel’s resources even more, doing nothing to produce stability in the region for anyone and further muddying domestic US politics.
Here’s a macroeconomic impact. Expect crude oil prices to skyrocket. Expect defense stocks to rise substantially. At a minimum, we’re going to need THOUSANDS more drones, bombs and missiles that have been depleted via aid to Ukraine and use in defense operations to date by the Navy in the Red Sea.
WTH
Unfortunately, I drove into Dearborn today, (season opening at Greenfield Village), without gassing up on the way, as gas is often cheaper in the towns I drive through than it is in the burb I live in. Was only down to half a tank.
Then I saw the news when I got home. Topped up tonight at $3.59.
The COP and CVX I bought in January have already given me a tidy return.
The possibility of a stunningly cynical scenario is non-zero.
-Israel was clearly the “victim” on 10/7
-with 30K+ dead pals, Israel no longer looks like the greater victim, and “Bebe” has been under a lot of pressure.
-wag the dog? Like try to provoke Iran into attacking Israel, to widen the war. to provide an excuse to postpone elections, so “Bebe” stays in power, and out of prison, longer?
Like I said, it’s stunningly cynical.
Steve
If Iran had a nuclear weapon would they use it against Israel?
Would be suicide unless you think you could win a nuclear war?
Does Israel have a nuclear weapon? Not officially but would you be surprised to learn they have the parts ready for assembly?
The US and Israel in all likelihood agreed to the Syrian bombing. Iran is causing a lot of problems here. The US has a full hand in what Israel is doing. More importantly, we have a full hand in what we do with Iran. That does not mean the American public is on board for war…yet.
The Saudis and others will up oil production to support the US at this time. The Saudis and others are against Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas…because the Muslim Brotherhood will eventually see if violence throughout the ME is a good or bad idea depending on what Hamas does.
Hezbollah has had Iran pushing it. Hezbollah is happy to be pushed.
The US needed to cut off Hezbollah by cutting off Iran.
This may or may not escalate. If not Hezbollah may deescalate. Iran may stop pushing them to fight. That is the message the US/Israel is sending.
The message won’t be on CNN. No use in trying to embarrass Iran and Hezbollah into pulling back.
If Iran and Israel keep going that is something the US wants for other purposes. Iran might be marching toward nuclear weapons right now. If so the US needs a military response. Iran’s forward thrusting ability is minor. Iran’s defenses are limited.
The issue we got right in Iraq in 2009 was leaving the cities alone. Pulling back into the desert to hold Iraq with a lot less fighting.
We can do that in Iran while overthrowing the theocracy. That would take a lot of pressure off of governments in the ME. This would allow for democratic reforms.
The violence in the ME is a governance problem among the Muslims. It needs to change. We can not keep revisiting it.
Do you want another 911? Or Oct 7? Or the poverty involved for the Arabs?
The logjam in the House was broken recently. There will be aid to Ukraine and Israel voted on probably as early as this week. It should pass.
From the late news, seems almost all of the Iranian drones were shot down. Minimal damage. Maybe one killed.
Now what?
Will “Bebe” cry about what a victim Israel is, and hit Iran?
Steve
I would be surprised if they didn’t have some ready for delivery.
Never Again!
More important, how did the USA react? News report that the US helped down some of the drones and missiles despite warning by Iran not to do so.
The Captain
We are going to war as the good guys.
It may or may not end up in war.
The benefits of a war much more democracy with some progress for Arab governments. The end of Iran’s theology. Most Iranians would be happy with that. Far less warring between different tribes and groups in the region. Iran would not be fueling that any longer.
The big thing no nuclear competition between Iran and SA.
If we let this go we are fools. This only gets worse. Not just with Israel but all of the ME. Gaza is the least of the Muslim governance problems.
NPR this morning gave three minutes to Sudan. There was a poet with something to say. Sudan has the most people displaced by war on the planet right now. Yet the American public could give a flying…
Stop being hypocrites that Israel and Gaza are the problem. BS.