I haven’t been following the stock lately, but after looking I’m sorry I did: $85! Ouch. What happened? What do we expect AMD to report next Tuesday? Good news? Bad?
$85! Ouch. What happened?
- War in Ukraine
- Inflation, interest rates, recession fears
Nvidia is down a similar amount, as are many other tech stocks. There is nothing wrong with AMD. More likely the ride to $150 was premature.
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* War in Ukraine
* Inflation, interest rates, recession fears
Nvidia is down a similar amount, as are many other tech stocks. There is nothing wrong with AMD. More likely the ride to $150 was premature.
Thanks for the sanity check.
As long as it’s all chips and for the same reasons, I’m less concerned. 
But I do still remain a little worried that Intel has been “getting its groove back” lately, and will catch up to AMD on all market fronts, particularly servers.
Fortunately, despite being retired, I’m still only 58 and I won’t need any of the money I have locked up in AAPL, AMD, and AMZN for 10 years at least.
What do we expect AMD to report next Tuesday?
Zacks Consensus Estimate expects AMD to report $0.91 EPS right on target revenue (outlook was for $5.00B ± 0.10B). Our EPS Contest entries over at Silicon Investor are all above that. On average (including Zacks), the mean entry is $1.00 EPS on $5.13B revenue, with an Q2 outlook for the AMD part of business at $5.29B revenue. Our estimates have beaten Zacks for two years straight now.
https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=33827407
Alarmingly, the whisper number at EarningsWhispers is below consensus at only $0.87 EPS, which reflects the current general negative sentiment in the market, I guess.
https://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks/amd
Note that these numbers presumably exclude contributions from Xilinx. That said, expect there to be confusion in the media about reported numbers, which will comprise of AMD + Xilinx now, compared to the stated outlook for the Q1 quarter, which only included AMD before the completion of the merger.
Zacks and other financial analysis sites will have to update their forecasts. For example, Zacks currently shows dismal expectations for AMD growth in 2023, expecting it to collapse to a mere 12%, which makes little sense as EPYC snowballing is accelerating with plenty of share to grab (as Lisa Su says, the exponential revenue trajectory is a “share gains story”). I expect many analysts to update their models after the Financial Analyst Day, JUN-09.
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The Next Platform’s take on AMD data centre growth, well worth reading:
“AMD’s datacenter revenues have doubled, give or take a few percentage points, for the seventh quarter in a row. According to our model, datacenter revenues – meaning Epyc CPUs and Instinct GPUs but not including any contributions from Xilinx – rose by 92.2 percent to $1.29 billion, which represents a 2.4 percent sequential growth rate from a very good Q4 2021. Epyc CPU sales were up by 102 percent to $1.22 billion and Instinct GPU sales were up 5 percent at $70 million. We reckon that six weeks of Xilinx datacenter revenues – about $52 million – in the March quarter were added onto AMD’s books post deal close, and that makes AMD’s overall datacenter revenues $1.34 billion, or 22.7 percent of total revenues for the company.”
https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/05/04/can-amd-keep-doublin…
https://3s81si1s5ygj3mzby34dq6qf-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-…
PS. By the way, next quarter AMD will finally report the datacentre businesses separately:
“AMD Chief Financial Officer Devinder Kumar said that beginning in the second quarter, the chip maker will delineate sales specifically from the division that has boosted its stock in recent years. This column has advocated, as have several Wall Street analysts, for AMD to break out this business segment separately for investors for more than two years. […] AMD will move from reporting two segments to four: data center, client, gaming and embedded.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/67f2d2fe-f69e-3369-b1df-3bb2cc21…
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Pretty solid earnings report and like V said, they will report in the future data center, client, gaming and embedded. The question I have is do you think that the earnings beat was good enough. They did beat the streets projections (guesses) and Lisa did say that they are continuing to see robust ordering into the next year. In the interview, the earnings/ projections for both AMD and XLNX are mentioned. Its interesting to note that XLNX earnings are only for 6 weeks of this quarter which means it should be better in the current quarter…doc
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/1914827/advanced-micro-devi…
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“AMD Chief Financial Officer Devinder Kumar said that beginning in the second quarter, the chip maker will delineate sales specifically from the division that has boosted its stock in recent years. This column has advocated, as have several Wall Street analysts, for AMD to break out this business segment separately for investors for more than two years. […] AMD will move from reporting two segments to four: data center, client, gaming and embedded.”
Finally!