Ebola - The "good news"

Here’s the GOOD news. When I google “companies working on ebola vaccines”, I find out that there are a bunch of them, including a lot of little ones, but also Glaxo (starting a phase I study with NIH (I seem to remember)). Now with vaccines for a killer disease like this, if they get past phase I (no bad effects on healthy people taking it), they will swing into action if the need becomes great. (Tests for percent of efficacy become secondary when any benefit at all is better than doing nothing).

There are also companies working on meds for people with ebola (some of which have been used in actual human cases)

  1. This makes me somewhat relieved that human civilization and the human race won’t be wiped out. If we get 30 active cases in the US they will forget about the red tape and start vaccinating the health care professionals dealing with them. Maybe even sooner.

  2. Guessing which little money-losing company to invest in is rather perilous when there are so many out there trying, and Glaxo is too big.

Just my thoughts, and I’d welcome others.

Saul

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1. This makes me somewhat relieved that human civilization and the human race won’t be wiped out. If we get 30 active cases in the US they will forget about the red tape and start vaccinating the health care professionals dealing with them. Maybe even sooner.

The US military has several thousand people in West Africa. I bet many of them are getting experimental preventative medicine.

Human civilization will not end but if 5-20% of people get wiped out then the will be a global depression. I think the chances of this occurring are very small. But if the spread gets out of control then we could be looking at very serious consequences such as curfews and martial law. I think the CDC is being way too lax on trying to contain this virus. Flights from the affect countries should be halted. Healthcare workers should be restricted from travel.

2. Guessing which little money-losing company to invest in is rather perilous when there are so many out there trying, and Glaxo is too big.

I agree that it will be too difficult to predict which company will succeed and they are already up on hype/hope of success.

Chris

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Chris your kidding right. Did you build a bomb shelter in your yard back in the 50’s? Holy crap get a spine.
BGM

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I am afraid I don’t follow much of what is going on in the news, but maybe need to take a step back and put things into perspective.

Deaths are for US (2010)

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Number of deaths: 2,515,458
Death rate: 807.3 deaths per 100,000 population
Life expectancy: 78.7 years
Infant Mortality rate: 6.07 deaths per 1,000 live births

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 596,577
Cancer: 576,691
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 142,943
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,932
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 126,438
Alzheimer’s disease: 84,974
Diabetes: 73,831
Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,826
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 45,591
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 39,518

Ebola:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26835233

A total of 4,493 people are confirmed to have died from Ebola this year, from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States, the World Health Organization said Wednesday.

Reminds me of the mad cow disease hysteria.

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Chris your kidding right. Did you build a bomb shelter in your yard back in the 50’s? Holy crap get a spine.

I wasn’t born yet in the 50s. I’m not currently concerned for my safety and I won’t be until thousands of people in my area get infected. As I said, I think that the chance is low but it is certainly possible. But the virus has already moved to people in the US and in Europe. Hopefully, it is contained with a small number of patients. We will know more in a few weeks.

However, if you look at the CDC’s website, you can read that ebola can remain in an infected person’s semen for 3 months after they have recovered from the virus. Here’s a link to the CDC’s website that describes how the virus is transmitted: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/ …“blood or body fluids (including but not limited to urine, saliva, sweat, feces, vomit, breast milk, and semen) of a person who is sick with Ebola” and “Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. Abstinence from sex (including oral sex) is recommended for at least 3 months. If abstinence is not possible, condoms may help prevent the spread of disease.” So does this mean that a man who has recovered and is now healthy without any visible symptons can still transmit the virus through sexual activity? If yes, then we will be in real trouble. The government (While House) is currently (at this very moment) saying that the virus can only be transmitted through an infected person with symptoms. This directly contradicts what’s on the CDC’s website. Screening people for fever on airplanes wouldn’t stop a traveler who has recovered and is carrying the virus in his semen.

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maybe need to take a step back and put things into perspective… A total of 4,493 people are confirmed to have died from Ebola this year, from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States, the World Health Organization said Wednesday.

Hey Bulgogi, as you said, let’s put it in perspective. That number has quadrupled in a month. If it keeps quadrupling every month (not saying it will, it could go up slower, or a lot faster than that actually, what’s to stop it?), in three months there will be over 270,000 dead. That’s more than three times our casualties in the whole eight years or so of the Viet-Nam War (again, to keep things in perspective).

Influenza kills thousands every year in the US, and influenza only kills a small fraction of those it infects, and ebola is killing 70%. And we have a vaccine for influenza, and none yet for ebola. Yes, let’s keep it in perspective.

Saul

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Should anyone wish to join the “Ebola will destroy the world” vs “You are scaremongering” discussion at New Paradigm Investing, feel free. It is even more off topic there than it seems here. And, if you like political twists in your scaremongering, that is definitely the place.

Said by someone who recently discovered this board and who has been enjoying much of the interchange, but really, really hopes that this board doesn’t take a deep dive into the toilet like that one has.

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Number of deaths for leading causes of death:
Heart disease: 596,577
Cancer: 576,691
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 142,943
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 128,932
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 126,438
Alzheimer’s disease: 84,974
Diabetes: 73,831
Influenza and Pneumonia: 53,826
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 45,591
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 39,518

Not sure how these numbers downplay the risk that Ebola may pose since most of these are chronic conditions or found largely in an aged segment of the population. Ebola on the other hand could infect 4 rows of an airliner with a single sneeze.

Influenza kills thousands every year in the US, and influenza only kills a small fraction of those it infects, and ebola is killing 70%. And we have a vaccine for influenza, and none yet for ebola. Yes, let’s keep it in perspective.

Not to mention that the influenza vaccine is composed of previous years strains and does not protect anyone from the current mutated strain that will spread in the coming season.

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Said by someone who recently discovered this board and who has been enjoying much of the interchange, but really, really hopes that this board doesn’t take a deep dive into the toilet like that one has.

You are right, Tamhas. I’ll get off this off-topic thread and quit posting on it. I started it more as a search for stocks to invest in, but it got carried away.

Saul

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Ebola on the other hand could infect 4 rows of an airliner with a single sneeze.

False. Bodily fluids. Period. Scaremongering.

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I happen to think it is a silly way to look for stocks … at least in the context of TMF … since any effect is likely to be ephemeral trading opportunities in response to daily news rather than long term growth possibilities (unless some very low profile drug company popped up with a promising drug … which might have to be given away considering where most cases are located).

No harm, of course, of wondering whether current news might relate to something that was a longer term, investable trend, but any news item which is subject to the level of politicization and scaremongering as this one is unlikely to produce any real information, much less investable information!

Thomas

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False. Bodily fluids. Period. Scaremongering.

Thought saliva was a bodily fluid. My bad.

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Well, it is … and you are expecting that 4 rows of an airliner are going to be coated with saliva from a sneeze?

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Well, it is … and you are expecting that 4 rows of an airliner are going to be coated with saliva from a sneeze?

Coated no, but it takes very little fluid contact for a virus to invade and replicate. So a sneeze could easily send saliva a few rows up at a width of maybe two seats.

Yes this is an unlikely scenario, just pointing out that it doesn’t take much for this disease to spread. If only my returns would compound as fast!

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