El Niño predicted for this winter

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently announced it expects El Niño conditions this coming winter. This means forecasted wetter than normal conditions for much of the southern US, while the northern states might see dry conditions.

Seasonal temperature and precipitation maps included in the following…

From the link:
From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Nino events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

The rain and snow from last winter caused the Colorado River reservoirs to recover somewhat from quite low levels in 2022. However, as of now, Lake Powell and Lake Mead are still not back up to where they were in 2018 through 2020.

Lake Powell level, as of October 19 of each year listed.

Year   Feet
2018   3592
2019   3614
2020   3593
2021   3545
2022   3530
2023   3573

Lake Powell level is currently higher than 2021 and 2022, but still lower than the levels seen in 2018, 2019 and 2020, for this time of year.

Lake Mead (downstream of Lake Powell) shows a similar trend. The level in 2023 recovered somewhat, but is still low compared to 2018 through 2020.

  • Pete
1 Like