I have been seeing forecasts from several places, most of them have asterisk. The asterisk is that we are being conservative and don’t want to be alarmist.
The things that set up for hurricanes, strong La Nina, high sea surface temperatures, low Saharan dust, steering currents that keep hurricanes from going out to sea, are all at the top of the charts.
The words, unprecedented and uncharted are being used.
When I look at the maps I get scared. I see a setup that can outstrip 2005. The storms wiped out oil production in the Gulf and refining in New Orleans and in Port Arthur. I don’t have a following and I don’t have a reputation to worry about.
Hyperbole is probably appropriate. Insurers, oil producers may have a tough year. People driving big cars and those wishing to build stuff may have real bad times.
The official season doesn’t start until June, but so far, so good. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist at the University of Colorado, notes that:
“The Northern Hemisphere has yet to have its first named storm (e.g., tropical storm or hurricane) in 2024. This is the first time since 1983 that the Northern Hemisphere has gone this late in the calendar year without a named storm.”
