The Elon bubble is deflating rapidly. It’s unfortunate that investors in some index funds were forced to invest in SPCX prior to its collapse.
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It could happen to AI companies that don’t have AI product revenue.
But the night is young, only 2 days post earnings.
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Not to worry. It’s going to get worse. Much worse.
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Tesla is at $313 now.
Anything is possible, but left to its own designs (no M&A or financial engineering, with say SpaceX, as one example), Tesla could double (meme itself) in about 1.5 years,
but would anyone call it a lock?
The last year was sobering for autonomy and the last two earnings calls were even more sober reality.
- no scaling robotaxi
- no nationwide rollout, just mostly small geofences, city-by-city, with few unsupervised (if any)
- no personal vehicle autonomy in sight
- likely all existing hardware incapable of autonomy (including HW4)
- stagnant and shrinking consumer vehicle lineup with no growth
- and a long list of other unrealized dreams
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Maybe he meant a negative 20% CAGR by Dec 31, 2027? That would put the stock at around $285 by then. That looks more likely than $640.
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The only way to be the biggest loser is to be the biggest richest.
Maybe they can sue the Index Funds for breaking protocol.
The Captain
Good point.
And we seem to have lost all the bulls, except maybe one or two.
If Tesla somehow recovers, maybe the bull thesis will rise again, like a burning Cybertruck that no one can extinguish.
Tesla ATH was $499.
Current price is $313, 63% of ATH
So currently a 37% decline.
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It’s hard for me to fully understand why Tesla shares are staying as high as they are. I guess I can accept some credence that many are holding because they believe Optimus and Robotaxi will eventually contribute in some future decade. So that may explain a little.
Others seem to think that big holders are trying to rationalize what the math will be when/if there is a combination of SpaceX and Tesla. I haven’t tried to do any math like that myself so am not sure what kind of impact on trading that might encourage, But some suggest Tesla’s share price would get a premium which is one reason it has support and stays high. But SpaceX is falling too allowing support to lessen and Tesla to fall too. I don’t fully understand all this and don’t believe it’s worth my time to come up with any math myself. I think I will just hold my shares in both until my SpaceX shares are released next year from lockup.
In the meantime it seems there isn’t really any near term catalyst out there for Tesla shares to increase unless new speculation comes along and hype continues rampant. But did I read correctly that Elon said something to the effect that the current robotaxi software being used in the Model Ys isn’t working very well in CyberCab? Whether true or not, it seems newly built and unusable Cybercabs are being shipped around the country. Just as 2025 turned into 2026 with problems continuing, it now looks like 2026 will have to wait for 2027.
The Bullish pundit view is that cybercabs are being staged in various locales for their robotaxi rollout. Gotta put them somewhere if production continues. It seems more likely they are being shipped to places where they can be indefinitely in quasi-storage. Elektrek claims another complete rewrite of FSD will be needed before we will see any further ramp in robotaxis. It seems that the software business that provides the Robotaxi Tracker has decided not to even count these so called rollouts to Tampa, Miami and Orlando because nil is really happening in any of them.
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You pretty much summarized it - it’s not that hard. A lot of investors believe that Tesla is literally right around the corner from either having true Level 5 (or incredibly good Level 4) self-driving, and that they are not far from having commercially useful Optimus robots for sale. Not “some future decade,” but within a year or two (and possibly shorter).
It seems that the world still does not end at the Rio Grande (Big River).
Tesla Demand Just Went NUCLEAR in Europe - Workers in Berlin training Optimus-
The Captain
From Google page, looks to be 2025 numbers:
Overall Brand Ranking
- Top 3 brands by sales: Volkswagen, Stellantis, Renault Car Sales Statistics.
- Tesla’s rank: 11th among all brands in Europe, behind Toyota, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Volvo, Nissan, and BYD Car Sales Statistics.
- BYD was the fastest-growing brand in 2025, up 268% year-on-year Car Sales Statistics.
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How many brands/models does Volkswagen, Stellantis, Renault Car have?
Google AI:
The Volkswagen Group, Stellantis, and Renault Group collectively control dozens of brands and produce over 160 different models worldwide. [1, 2]
The exact breakdown of their automotive brands and model counts reveals the scale of their global footprints:
1. Volkswagen Group
- Number of Automotive Brands: 10 main brands (excluding commercial heavy trucks/buses like Scania and MAN).
- Brand Names: Volkswagen Passenger Cars, Audi, ŠKODA, SEAT, Cupra, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Bugatti (via Bugatti Rimac joint venture), and Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles.
- Number of Models: Over 85 global models across their full European and international portfolios. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
2. Stellantis
- Number of Automotive Brands: 14 main brands.
- Brand Names: Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Citroën, Dodge, DS Automobiles, Fiat, Jeep, Lancia, Maserati, Opel, Peugeot, Ram, and Vauxhall. (They also partner with Leapmotor for EV sales and own mobility providers like Free2move).
- Number of Models: Around 58 models globally. [1, 2, 3, 4]
3. Renault Group
- Number of Automotive Brands: 3 core brands.
- Brand Names: Renault, Dacia, and Alpine.
- Number of Models: Roughly 22 models across their primary vehicle segments. [1, 2]
How many brands/models does Tesla have?
Google AI:
Tesla operates under one primary automotive brand (Tesla) and currently produces 5 passenger vehicle models alongside commercial and specialized transport options. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Current Passenger Vehicle Production
Tesla’s core lineup of passenger vehicles consists of five main consumer models: [1, 2]
Tesla Model 3: A compact, all-electric four-door luxury sedan.
Tesla Model Y: A compact crossover SUV built on the Model 3 platform, serving as the company’s global best-seller.
Tesla Model S: A flagship, mid-size luxury five-door liftback sedan.
Tesla Model X: A large luxury crossover SUV equipped with signature “Falcon Wing” rear passenger doors.
Tesla Cybertruck: A full-size electric pickup truck sporting a distinctive stainless steel, angular design. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Commercial & Special Use Vehicles
Beyond consumer passenger cars, Tesla manufactures the following specialized models: [1, 2, 3, 4]
Tesla Semi: A Class 8 heavy-duty commercial semi-truck.
Tesla Cybercab: A purpose-built robotaxi designed specifically for autonomous ride-hailing networks. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
The Captain
Apparently they require (some) Cybercab-specific data for model training.
Will it require 10 billion miles?
Or did they improve training velocity by 99% so now it only requires 100 million miles?
Q2 earnings call:
One of the things for Cybercab that should be noted is because it is a new vehicle chassis, we need to accumulate driving data that is specific to the Cybercab before we can put a lot of them on the road. Unlike, say, Model 3 and Model Y and our other vehicles where we’ve got a lot of vehicles on the road, millions of vehicles on the road, we don’t have that for Cybercabs. We actually have to accumulate miles with Cybercabs that are retrofitted with steering wheels and acceleration, braking pedals, that kind of thing, to calibrate to the Cybercab chassis.
Reminded me of Mark Twain, “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
GoogleAI:
The phrase “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” is famously known for describing the persuasive power of numbers to bolster weak arguments or manipulate the truth. While widely associated with Mark Twain, its exact historical origin remains a bit of a mystery. [1, 2, 3]
The Origin Story
- Mark Twain’s Role: Twain popularized the phrase in the United States in his 1906 publication Chapters from My Autobiography. He noted that figures often beguiled him, especially when he arranged them himself. [1, 2]
- The Disraeli Attribution: In his autobiography, Twain actually attributed the quote to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. [1, 2]
- The Catch: Historians have never found the phrase in any of Disraeli’s written works or speeches. The earliest recorded uses of the phrase appeared years after Disraeli died, leaving the true creator murky.[1, 2]
Why the Quote Endures
The saying remains popular because data can easily be weaponized or misunderstood without being flat-out false. Common ways statistics are misused include: [1]
- Selective Data Picking: Highlighting only data that supports a specific bias while ignoring data that contradicts it.
- Small Sample Sizes: Drawing massive, sweeping generalizations from a tiny or non-representative group of subjects.
- Misleading Presentation: Formatting charts, scales, or percentages to make a minor difference look massive or catastrophic. [1, 2, 3, 4]
What was the best selling EV in 2025?
GoogleAI:
The Tesla Model Y was the world’s best-selling electric vehicle in 2025. According to industry data compiled by JD Power and EV Volumes, it was the only fully electric vehicle (BEV) to surpass the one-million delivery milestone in 2025. [1]
Global EV Rankings for 2025
The global electric car market remained highly competitive, with Tesla and Chinese automakers dominating the top spots. [1]
- Tesla Model Y: 1,085,521 units. It retained its global crown for the third consecutive year, despite a 7.5% year-on-year drop in sales as more competitors entered the market. [1]
- Tesla Model 3: 499,685 units. The all-electric sedan secured the second position globally, with major sales driven by China and the United States. [1]
- Geely Geome Xingyuan (also known as the EX2): 473,948 units. This compact vehicle finished in a close third place globally, seeing explosive growth primarily within the domestic Chinese market. [1]
- Wuling Mini EV: 431,779 units. This micro-EV experienced a 65.3% sales rebound to take fourth place globally. [1]
- BYD Seagull: 409,550 units. Also marketed as the Dolphin Surf, this entry-level hatchback completed the top five. [1]
Best-Selling Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV)
If you include Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, the BYD Song Plus (known as the Seal U in some regions) was the best-selling PHEV globally in 2025, recording 328,094 sales. [1]
The Captain
Welp, we got dueling Google answers then. I mean you do you, but I am very much on the pessimistic side of this discussion. I asked Google “how many ev’s have sold over a million cars in a year”.
The response says that not even Tesla has done that. And, that BYD is far ahead which is what I suspected. (Not sure how my question introduced any bias, but hey maybe my cookies are…)
======================
Global context
In 2025, global EV sales reached 20.7 million units source.benchmarkminerals.com.
While Tesla is the dominant global EV seller, its 2025 sales are still below 1 million units in a single year when compared to the total global market.
In China, BYD sold over 12.9 million EVs in 2025, making it the only major manufacturer to exceed 1 million units in a single year globally source.benchmarkminerals.com.
Summary
U.S.: No automaker has sold over 1 million EVs in a year.
Global: Only a few manufacturers (e.g., BYD in China) have reached that milestone in recent years.
The U.S. market is still growing, but the scale of sales is smaller than in China, so the 1 million-unit-per-year mark remains rare for EV makers outside China.
Weird. I literally cut and paste your exact quote into google, and got the below:
Only a couple of individual electric vehicle models have ever sold over one million units in a single global calendar year, specifically led by the Tesla Model Y and select high-volume offerings from makers like BYD. [1, 2, 3]
Key EV Models Reaching the One-Million Annual Milestone
…so I’m not sure why you got a different answer. But Tesla certainly sold more than a million model Y for two years, and possibly last year as well (it’s hard to get a firm read on that).
The Model Y will almost certainly remain the single best-selling model of BEV for many years to come, because no other manufacturer is moving ahead with so constrained a model lineup as Tesla is choosing to do.
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WOW…what is it they say about trusting the interwebz…lol.
It is important to verify the info you get from AI. I recommend you read it and check the links before you post it. For example:
This is no longer valid.
Both have of course been discontinued.
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This sentence makes no sense. What does “units in a single year” have to do with “when compared to the total global market?”
The Captain
I find financial Youtube videos to be less than helpful in most cases. Everything that guy said could be found in the earnings report and earnings call in 1/10th the time.
I’ll summarize: Tesla sales in Europe were up by a lot, steady in China, and down in the US. Overall they were up. If things continue, sales might return to their 2023 peak. That’s surely good news.
What he didn’t say is that profits are way down. Margins are down too.
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