Empire State survey


New York economy sags in January, Empire State survey shows
The Empire State survey of business conditions nosedived to -0.7 points in January from 31.9 in the prior month, the New York Federal Reserve said, reflecting fresh strains from omicron as well as ongoing supply-chain bottlenecks…

Any reading below zero indicates worsening conditions.



Looking ahead: The survey results suggest that the “effects of the omicron wave of the pandemic are largely responsible for January’s pause in growth, and that as this phase of the pandemic passes so will its negative economic impact,” said chief economist Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc.

I checked the CDC site. Hospitalizations for Covid are 50 percent higher than the Delta peak. That was also the record high. Infections are much higher, 2.5 times higher. This has to take a lot of people out of the work force and cause all kinds of supply chain and work flow problems.

For example, delayed building permits, delayed insurance certificates, delayed loan approvals, delayed back ground investigations on new hires, these are not big photo ops, but make business slow anyway.

Fortunately Omicron is fast and not so furious, so we should see significant rebounds by Easter.