He has over 1,000,000 shares and he bought 1,000 more. That’s adding one tenth of one percent to his position. It’s better than selling but who is he kidding?
Saul
14 Likes
I did a double take when the headline came through on Seeking Alpha. 1.12k seemed like it had to be in error, but no.
2 Likes
After a 78% drop from the all time high ENPH seems to have bottomed and November has been good for NASDAQ. The inflation numbers seem to be improving.
One year chart
Denny Schlesinger
3 Likes
And the same thing could be concluded about 4 or 5 times in that chart!
6 Likes
Of course but before ENPH was not tracking NASDAQ and in November it is (check the pale yellow line at the top of the chart). Also the P/E ratio is down to a very reasonable less than 25.
Denny Schlesinger
2 Likes
The wild card is California and what is happening with Nem 3.0. The next quarter they guided Revenue down 52 percent YoY and 36 percent sequentially. I would be very careful with Enphase for a few quarters. I took a bath in it but still like the company. An excerpt from last CC.
In California, the sell-through of our microinverters was 25% lesser in Q3 compared to Q2 due to the NEM 3.0 transition. It will take a few more quarters for our installers to fully transition to NEM 3.0 and normalize sales to NEM 2.0 levels.
Andy
2 Likes
“It will take a few more quarters for our installers to fully transition to NEM 3.0 and normalize sales to NEM 2.0 levels.”
But Andy, don’t you remember that in the previous one or two CCs the CEO had promised that NEM wouldn’t affect them hardly at all.
They assured us that installers were figuring out how to sell their new batteries because under NEM 3.0 the higher cost of the batteries will be offset by the opportunity to utilize batteries to make money selling energy back to the grid.
It makes it really hard to believe management now, no matter what they say.
Saul
16 Likes
It’s tough running a business Saul, especially in the last few years. But I suspect that more people will eventually get solar systems especially when the rates for electricity just keep going up. Do you want to see deflation? Go look at the price of solar panels and see what they were 3 years ago.
Andy
6 Likes
It’s tracking the expectation of Interest rates and that’s what that chart is showing.
4 Likes
Just today:
About 16 million people in California will see their electric and gas bills go up by an average of more than $32 per month over next year in part so that one of the nation’s largest utility companies can bury more of its power lines to reduce the chances of starting wildfires."
Electric rates going up but I am out of ENPH. Too many variables outside my ability to predict.
-zane
I certainly agree with the sentiment and I too took an ENPH bath but one needs to look at the micro and the macro.
Facts (as I perceive them):
- ENPH was in a bubble and the bubble has been deflated
- The transition to renewable energy is unstoppable but slow and bumpy
- Micro inverters are the best technology but electric components are mostly commodities – no moat
- Virtual power plants (VPP) are going to restructure the grid and replace fossil fuel peaker plants. Tesla has a functioning system. I don’t know if Enphase does or if it has plans to create one.
- The economic weather map seems to be calming down. As MFChips says about the market: “It’s tracking the expectation of Interest rates and that’s what that chart is showing.”
After over 30 years in the market I have mostly stopped “investing” and now I mostly trade covered calls, one reason I seldom post here anymore. I’m starting to look at ENPH from that perspective with a lot of caution.
Denny Schlesinger
I installed solar panels and a wind turbine on my sailboat over 20 years ago. Noisy darn things!
24 Likes
Enphase series 8 inverters are ready for virtual grids. The Enphase inverters are better technology than Tesla’s last year’s inverters. (Tesla may have upgraded so I do not know the current state of Tesla technology)
Better technology seldom means market superiority. See Betamax.
The virtual grid depends on storage as much as inverters. I will continue to watch Enphase, but it must show growth to get an investment. In the mean time I can invest in Tesla and get a free warrant on the virtual grid.
Long Tesla, no position Enphase.
Cheers
Qazulight
18 Likes
I called this bubble waiting to burst in April and you called my post as cherry picked then. how to know something is in bubble when everything is looking rosy?
3 Likes
The best baseball players don’t get to 500 batting average, 300 is considered excellent. 
Denny Schlesinger
10 Likes