Europe's "Reason for Being"

Europe is a continent with a long, violent history. Since it’s already there it never occurred to me that it would need a “reason for being.”

The EU has 27 member states and has a 5-year strategic agenda.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/strategic-agenda-2024-2029/

Mario Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank, is warning that Europe could lose its reason for being if they don’t invest massively to maintain competitiveness with the U.S. and China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/business/europe-economy-competitiveness.html

Europe’s ‘Reason for Being’ at Risk as Competitiveness Wanes, Report Warns

The European Union, facing a shrinking share of the global economy, needs to increase its spending by nearly $900 billion a year, according to a long-awaited report from Mario Draghi.

By Jenny Gross and Patricia Cohen, The New York Times, Sept. 9, 2024

Europe must increase public investment by nearly $900 billion a year in sectors like technology and defense, according to a long-awaited report published Monday in response to growing anxieties about the continent’s economy lagging behind that of the United States and China.

The challenge for the European Union is “existential,” Mario Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank, said on Monday in Brussels. If Europe cannot effectively compete and, in turn, provide its people with security and prosperity, he said, “it will have lost its reason for being.”…

Mr. Draghi said that, to meet the objectives in his report, the European Union needed additional annual investment of up to 800 billion euros ($884 billion), an amount equivalent to about 4.5 percent of the European Union’s gross domestic product last year. …

The gap in gross domestic product between the European Union’s 27 members and the United States, adjusted for inflation, has widened to 30 percent in 2023 at 2015 prices, from just over 15 percent in 2002, mostly driven by lower productivity in Europe… [end quote]

The EU has about 450 million people as opposed to 335 million in the U.S. But the Europeans work less than Americans so their productivity is lower.

In comparison to the 4.5% of EU GDP that Mr. Draghi is proposing, the U.S. bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act provides for $1.2 trillion in spending to be allocated over the next five years. That’s $24 billion per year for 5 years. U.S. GDP is currently $28.7 trillion. That would make the spending less than 0.1% of GDP annually.

Given Europe’s slowing economy, especially Germany which has been the engine of the EU, it’s going to be hard to raise the huge amount of money needed.

Europe’s reason for being will have to change as the economic screws tighten. Expect major unrest since the European population has been indulged for generations.
Wendy

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Mr Draghi is referring to a ‘unified’ Europe, the EU. There were two main reasons for the unification push since WW2. One was economic – cross border trading – and this is the focus of his comments. The other impetus for greater European linkage is now largely forgotten, but was a way to solve ‘the German question’. Twice in less than 50 years Germany had plunged Europe and the world in major wars. Konrad Adenauer, in particular, thought that an economic union between France and German would inhibit another round of warfare. He pushed the Coal and Steel Community idea as a means for this.

DB2

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Compete with the US, how? Marquee US companies are retreating, not competing. Boeing is losing major amounts of commercial market share, while it cozies up with DoD. GM and Ford are abandoning global markets, and increasingly focusing on North America.

Is that production of tangible products only, or does that include financial speculation and manipulation? I doubt there is an equal, anywhere else in the world, to the US’ capacity for generating financial bubbles, and calling it “GDP”.

Or are the US and the EU in a race to the bottom, via Welchism, and McKinsey?

Steve

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The Soviet Union used to have Five Year Plans…

The Captain

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What period of European history in the past 1,000 years has been the most peaceful?

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Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period.

Note the word “finished.” This doesn’t include financial assets.

Wendy

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GDP per capita for the EU last year was $41K.
GDP per capita for the US last year was $82K.

Per capita growth over 10 years for the EU: 18%
Per capita growth over 10 years for the US: 53%

Steve, have you looked at the global dominance of Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, Lilly et cetera? They might also help your portfolio returns.

DB2

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Well, they almost/sorta had a peaceful 100 years after 1815 (if you don’t count the Crimean War and the Franco-Prussian war). And it was 77 years between 1945 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine (not counting those dust-ups in the Balkans).

DB2

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EU has too many regulations. This favors the status quo and discourages disruption. Investors tend to stay away.

More importantly, Europe is a dying continent. No one wants to have babies anymore. Birth rates are collapsing.

They have plenty of migrants from the Middle East and Africa to replenish the population.

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Well, by this measure. 13% of “GDP” is professional and business “services”.

12% is real estate, rental, and leasing.

8% is finance and insurance.

That is about 33% of GDP that is churning and skimming. Only 11% is actually manufacturing.

What you call “churning and skimming” are commercial services that customers pay for. This is quite different from asset speculation.
Wendy

Thinking a lot about health issues…

Let’s suppose the population were 100% healthy and the medical and pharma industries went bust, GDP would drop like a lead balloon. Would the economy/country be better off?

The Captain

Over at another board a fellow would complain, “We don’t make anything anymore.” I would reply like you just did, “Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon.” Why did the outsourcing of hardware create so much bad feeling in the long run and sky high tariffs now?

There is more to the economy than just numbers.

The Captain

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And the revolts inside the USSR, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, plus the Berlin Air Lift.

The Captain

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I do not think so with all the following wars!

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US industry is becoming all powerful on the world stage. Your timing is off.

Boeing will shake its current outdated culture.

Ford and GM will probably lead three years from now in EV sales. They have offerings.

Tesla is getting into trouble in China. The Chinese EV companies face major problems. The US is getting the resources together for major battery production. China in the meantime won’t refuse to supply batteries.

The US/Mexico is the engine of global growth. Demand side economics.

As for Germany, irony the heart of Europe needs to become a war machine. Supply side economics.

Supply side economics means massive government budgets and deficits.

In 1981 the federal deficit was $1 trillion. Supply side economics was a huge give away to the rich so the US economy could survive. $33 trillion in socialism for the rich. NOTE that is the debt part of it. Add in the taxes collected and then forked over to the rich. It is far more money than $33 tr as socialism for the rich. There is the multiplier effect. Other than the multiplier effect hit the skids a few years ago we would continue on plundering the US.

Supply side economics assumes people are stupid and can be lied to endlessly. It is a proven fact not just an assumption.

Yep the Christian countries could not get enough of their own blood. The US meanwhile is much more peaceful within a British tradition. Fight those without not within. But it is the separation of church and state that allows for peace within.

I really should stop insisting on peace in the ME. Israel does better with the wars being created over nothing. Better than targetting others in Europe or elsewhere including Israel.

I must say the Muslims are far less bloody than the Europeans. Looking back at European history it is good for a big laugh that any Europeans let the word “peace” cross their lips. Hypocrites.

Those for peace in Gaza who are in the US scare me. I think they’d easily be the most violent people. The more righteous someone is the less trustworthy and historically the more bloody.

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Lead where? They pretty much have withdrawn from most international markets and likely depend on protectism to survive in the US.

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regardless of the tariffs

The US is retooling. The economies of scale will make the US an exporting behemoth.

We are the new China.

See my thread just started on GM.