If Ukraine had not surrendered its own nukes, Putin would not have attempted this blitzkrieg.
Putin has stated he will use nukes and Russia’s new advanced hypersonic weaponry if Russia is attacked. He would never have attempted to take Ukraine if he didn’t have nukes to protect his government.
North Korea’s government uses its nukes to maintain power.
Israel uses its nukes to protect its existence.
Pakistan and India is nukes to protect themselves from each other.
Iran now knows it must have nukes.
Dictators around the world will be looking for ways to obtain nukes.
This invasion has increased the risk of nuclear proliferation
This invasion has increased the risk of intentional or accidental contamination of the earth with radioactive fallout.
Worst of all, Putin has proven that possession of nuclear weaponry is the key to both domination and deterrence.
We have been navel gazing while evil has been planning to strike.
Nukes are both essential and nihilistic at the same time.
Notehound7 Nukes are both essential and nihilistic at the same time.
The problem with nukes and the M.A.D. “theory” is there is NO ‘Plan B’.
Nukes do not have a ‘main’ problem, it is an only.
If, God forbid, there is the beginning, there will be no end. No surrender. No time to rebuild. Ala recovering from a devastation ala WWII.
Nukes are very much a no other choice path. All in the hope that a Putin doesn’t come to the fore. But if, when one does, options are limited. Given his demeanor and stated opinion that the breakup of the USSR was a major disaster and needs reversal, perhaps serious talks with his fellow Kremlininskis are the only available avenues of discussions.
On the bright side of things, while the Earth grinds towards Armageddon, there will be bargains galore in the stock market.
When the end doesn’t come, we will have picked up some great companies at fire sale prices.
If the end does come, nothing will matter. Not the market, not nothing. End of discussion.
I can’t come up with anything to dispute any of this unfortunately. Putin has basically said “I will use nukes first”. This puts the rest of the world in a bind: let Putin do as he wants and rebuild the USSR, or risk the end of the world. BrerBear is right, if the nukes fly nothing else matters.
I’ve been avoiding a panic risk-to-cash for two months now. Selling risky stuff, yes, but replacing it with less risky stuff rather than sitting in cash. So I have little cash to deploy if this ends. This begs the question: do I panic sell now and wait for this to settle? Or is it too late now for that? I’ve wiped all my 2021 gains at this point, 30% gone.
Nukes are both essential and nihilistic at the same time.
Sadly, I think the message from NATO has to be that if Putin uses nukes, then the cold-war equation of mutually assured destruction still holds. He has to know we will wipe him off the map, even if it means the same for us.
Terrible dark equation, but without that clear message, Putin will believe he can just keep advancing while the west twiddles their thumbs and talks about “sanctions.”
If Ukraine had not surrendered its own nukes, Putin would not have attempted this blitzkrieg.
NH,
Nukes are expensive to maintain. From the beginning Ukraine could not afford them maintenance wise. Before this invasion their economy was getting more substantial but by now those nukes would have been worthless.
This begs the question: do I panic sell now and wait for this to settle? Or is it too late now for that? I’ve wiped all my 2021 gains at this point, 30% gone.
I solved the problem by going shopping this morning for stuff we need for our trip. Got back an hour ago … still didn’t get around to a haircut that was supposed to be part of it. I suppose there are probably barber shops somewhere near the resort?
Interestingly, the blond Nu Yawker “Boris” just claimed the Russian stock market is down 45% … I don’t even know what it is called.
Recall that nuclear proliferation has been a concern from day one of the nuclear age. If everyone has nuclear weapons eventually someone will use them.
Recall too that spies at Los Alamos leaked key info to the Soviets for fear the atomic bomb would give the US too much power.
Others shared the secrets or developed their own technology.
The genie is now out of the bottle. We can’t put it back.
tim443 True, however while they have been around all this time, the last one used in anger was 9th of Aug 1945 to end WWII
And it worked.
Given what was seen as Imperial Japan’s vow to fight to the last standing woman, child, and old persons who could wield a wooden spear, they would not surrender under any circumstances.
Even when August 6th Hiroshima and then August 9th Nagasaki had occurred, the outcome was not assured. The emperor’s taped radio message was instrumental in Japan’s final acquiescence. There were others who still wanted to continue.
As bad as the death and destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were, the two events spared the rest of the country incalculable many millions of lives and losses.
As bad as the death and destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were, the two events spared the rest of the country incalculable many millions of lives and losses.
That is not to mention the Soviet invasion of Manchuria that also happened on the 9th of Aug 1945? Many credit that as to why the Japanese military leaders finally accepted defeat. They really didn’t all that much care about a Japanese city full of civilians being incinerated. The city fire bombings killed far more people.
They really didn’t all that much care about a Japanese city full of civilians being incinerated.
This is probably true. But they DID care about TWO cities being utterly destroyed. Because if the enemy had 2 such bombs, they might have 20 of them … and that would literally be the end of Japan.
This is probably true. But they DID care about TWO cities being utterly destroyed. Because if the enemy had 2 such bombs, they might have 20 of them … and that would literally be the end of Japan.
Japan was already in the process of trying to surrender as the Russians had dropped the neutrality agreement. Their only requirement was that the Emperor be allowed to remain in his ceremonial position.
Step Two was getting the USSR to enter the war against Japan, which Stalin wanted to do after the German surrender. The USSR terminated its neutrality agreement with Japan back in April 1945 – so the Japanese could see it was coming. (In fact, the USSR declared war on Japan two days after Hiroshima, and one day before Nagasaki. Japan surrendered less than a week later.)
And there is a great deal of evidence that most U.S. military leaders, and most of Truman’s advisors (except Byrnes) thought that this “two-step” strategy would bring about a surrender with no need for a land invasion. As mentioned, Japan was running on fumes, and after the German and Italian surrenders they now faced the undivided might of the Allies.
Significantly, in April 1945, Japan replaced the hard-line militarist prime minister Koiso with the less militarist Admiral Suzuki. Suzuki replaced Koiso the day U.S. forces sank the Japanese flagship Yamato and a week after we invaded Okinawa.
Historian Gar Alperowitz reports that Japan put out peace feelers in Portugal, Sweden, and Switzerland, and the OSS knew about it. And our own Joint Intelligence Committee thought the two-step would work.
Japan was already in the process of trying to surrender as the Russians had dropped the neutrality agreement. Their only requirement was that the Emperor be allowed to remain in his ceremonial position.
That’s not how surrender works. The victor is the one that sets the requirements, and the loser meets them.
Japan was already in the process of trying to surrender as the Russians had dropped the neutrality agreement. Their only requirement was that the Emperor be allowed to remain in his ceremonial position.
That’s not how surrender works. The victor is the one that sets the requirements, and the loser meets them.
You’ve nailed how unconditional surrender works.
Sometimes you can get an enemy to surrender sooner, at lower cost to everybody, by agreeing to some terms they set. While still, of course, keeping the large majority of terms in your own favor.
MarkR: That’s not how surrender works. The victor is the one that sets the requirements, and the loser meets them.
You do know that General Macarthur accepted that condition right? In truth I always thought Macarthur was a terrible General. With lots of notice after the attack on Pearl Harbor he left his Airforce in the Phillipines parked in nice tight rows for the Japanese to destroy. Later while commanding in the Korean War he ignored intelligence reports that the Chinese were about to attack until it was too late. Then there was the hash he made of the New Guinea campaign in sending raw troops to march into battle over a mountain trail range (Owen Stanley) that left the unit unfit for combat for the rest of the war. This at a time when there were sufficient aircraft available to take them to where they needed to be.
United States Army Air Forces aircraft losses on the ground in the Philippines were similar to those sustained on Oahu despite nine hours available for preparations following the Pearl Harbor attack; but commanding general Douglas MacArthur and other senior commanders avoided the disgrace suffered by Hawaiian commanders, who were relieved of command and forced into retirement after an official investigation. In contrast, there was no official investigation of events in the Philippines.[2]
Was Japan about to surrender? Nuclear weapons shocked Japan into surrendering at the end of World War II—except they didn't. Japan surrendered because the Soviet Union entered the war. Japanese leaders said the bomb forced them to surrender because it was less embarrassing to say they had been defeated by a miracle weapon.
Why did MacArthur keep Hirohito as emperor of Japan? In the decades after the war, the accepted version of events held that Hirohito was essentially a pawn of the militarists who gained control of the government shortly after he took the throne. MacArthur, convinced he needed the Emperor to run a smooth occupation, played no small part in establishing this version.
In truth I always thought Macarthur was a terrible General. With lots of notice after the attack on Pearl Harbor he left his Airforce in the Phillipines parked in nice tight rows for the Japanese to destroy.
I agree that he was not a good general. My father, who served under him in the Philippines in '41-42, hated him. However, the airplanes were not just left on the runway. US forces were notified of the attack in the early hours of December 8th. In expectations of an air strike from Formosa the planes were readied and then went airborne.
However, in the days before satellites, the weather in Formosa was an unknown. Morning fog delayed the Japanese strike force for hours. With no airstrike, eventually the US planes landed for refueling and a meal. Murphy being Murphy, that is when the Japanese arrived.