EVs Still in Early Adopter Stage

Industry Discussions Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Fools
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The adoption of new technology is roughly a bell shaped curve.
Once buyers exceed 15% the specific technology has surpassed early adopter phase.

2024:

quarterly U.S. light-duty vehicles sales by powertrain
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2025:

quarterly U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by powertrain

The ending of federal tax credit seems to have lessened sales of EVs.

Range anxiety still persists. Solid state battery EVs with 700+ mile range & 10 minute charging are coming. But it will be a while until mass production is achieved.
Toyota will introduced solid State battery powered EVs next quarter in Japan & EU. The US will have to wait until the 4th quarter of 2025. But these will be high end EVs. Solid state battery production will have to be built or lithium battery factories converted. It will be years before they become ubiquitous.

Conservative vehicle buyers will likely buy a hybrid over a EV.

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Thing is, Toyota is touting it’s “solid state battery”, with a claimed 745 mile range, scheduled for production in 2027.

If it’s real, not vaporware, everyone else, with a battery from LG or CATL, will be dead in the water. Even I could consider an EV, if I could confidently make a 300 mile day trip, without sweating needing to find a charger.

https://www.topspeed.com/automakers-notice-toyota-745-mile-solid-state-battery/

Steve

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If they have a working, production-worthy battery, then my investment in QS is probably dead money. I didn’t put a lot in there because I knew it was speculative. With VW backing them, I was hopeful I’d get a nice pop when they finished development.

It might take a bit of time to ramp-up, but with demand from Toyota (and others), I’m sure it will be pretty quick.

If it’s not vaporware, as you say. I hadn’t heard they were that close. But it is Toyota, so I think they would be cautious about getting egg on their face by announcing something that doesn’t exist.

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From Google Gemini:
In 2019, Toyota announced plans to debut a solid-state battery electric vehicle at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. This debut was ultimately delayed

So they already have egg on their face

Mike

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Having the battery ready for sale doesn’t mean that it is attractively priced.

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Which will be worse if they have a repeat episode. But your point is taken.

So my investment is QS is not dead money yet… :slight_smile:

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Hopefully it’s delayed in the developmental process, maybe someone leaked it too soon… Wouldn’t be the first time…

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IC still lives in new production.
https://electrek.co/2025/08/01/nissan-keep-gas-suv-alive-even-with-new-ev-version/

Toyota is bringing new EV model to market but stays concentrated on hybrids which proved a great business strategy in 2024.

30%: Toyota Bets Big On Hybrids For 2025

Toyota is instead a proponent of giving powertrains an equal chance, whether that be traditional combustion, full-on electric, hybrids, or even hydrogen.

The star of the show is Toyota’s hybrid lineup. It turns out that Americans turning their nose at BEVs have still been receptive to electrification in a different way—presumably to avoid higher costs uncertainties revolving around range anxiety despite a growing EV charging network
https://insideevs.com/news/751203/toyota-50-percent-electrified-us/

While EV sales remain a challenge for Toyota dealers, gasoline-electric hybrid and plug-in hybrid sales have grown rapidly and are expected to reach a milestone, Christ said. Sales of what the automaker calls “electrified vehicles”—hybrids, plug-in hybrids, BEVs and hydrogen-fueled vehicles—accounted for 43 percent of the automaker’s U.S. sales volume in 2024, up from 29 percent a year earlier.