EXAS pre-announces

Don’t think a lot of folks here are interested (or invested), but I’ll keep posting some results now and then, as EXAS definitely demonstrates some “Saul stock” like performance metrics.

The company pre-announced some 4th quarter and full year results today (15% pop, near all time high) which show continued strong growth. Here is the release from the company:


And a Barrons writer’s take on the release:


You can look up earlier posts from me for historical numbers, I won’t get into them here other than to say for the past 2-3 years, they had been posting consistent, triple digit revenue growth, which slowed to 86% in 1Q18 to 79% in 2Q18 to 62% in 3Q18.

They were expected to earn $127M in the 4th quarter but pre-released $143M instead. Giving 2018 total of $454-$455M, up from the previous $435-$440M expectation. The new numbers come out to a 71% increase in revenue for the year.

The fourth quarter’s revenue number will be a YoY increase of 64% and a sequential QoQ increase of 22% if it doesn’t change between now and the official release in Feb.

Many other numbers given in the linked articles that you can read yourself if interested.

What I think this shows (but they did NOT say), is that the partnership with Pfizer to sell their Cologuard screening test is starting out with a bang and is going to be a boon for the company and their growth may accelerate again, or at least stop the slow down in growth that was occuring. The 4Q18 was the first quarter that Pfizer salespeople had the opportunity to sell the Cologuard solution, and I would guess the unexpected increase this quarter is due to the Pfizer sales force starting to take effect.

If you remember I outlined 3 potential catalysts for continued growth besides just the organic growth of the Cologuard tests.

  • Screening recommendation going from 50 to 45 years, increasing TAM (has not taken effect yet).
  • Liquid biopsy tests, especially their liver screening test (no effect yet).
    - Pfizer partnership.

I think this release bodes well for the future of EXAS but make your own decisions.


I suspect that there is another thing that EXAS is getting - data.

This data should not only provide a moat, it should provide clues to the next product and eventually be made anonymous then monitized.


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