Some big news from EXAS, they released their 2Q results a day early today. About 3 weeks ago I finally got an update out on this board from their first quarter. Here’s that update:
https://discussion.fool.com/exas-update-1q19-34246133.aspx
Here were my thoughts on their performance going forward, …I believe as the large, established Pfizer sales force becomes more adept at selling the Cologuard test, that the growth will continue to increase.
It seemed pretty obvious to me, and it played out exactly as expected with rev growth INCREASING from 80% to 94%. And seeing as how this was still just the 2nd full quarter of the partnership, I expect the rate to continue over 100% for at least the next couple quarters. Here were the numbers over the past few years I posted last time now with 2Q19 included:
Revs (Millions) Seq Rev Growth YOY Rev Growth TTM Rev (Millions) TTM YOY Rev Growth
1Q16 $15 2.8% 244.2% $50 760.3%
2Q16 $21 43.2% 161.7% $63 353.2%
3Q16 $28 32.5% 123.0% $79 196.2%
4Q16 $35 25.3% 144.4% $99 152.0%
1Q17 $48 37.5% 227.0% $133 166.3%
2Q17 $58 19.0% 171.7% $169 168.7%
3Q17 $73 26.0% 158.4% $214 172.4%
4Q17 $87 20.4% 148.3% $266 167.9%
1Q18 $90 3.0% 86.0% $308 131.5%
2Q18 $103 14.4% 78.8% $353 108.5%
3Q18 $118 14.6% 62.5% $398 86.3%
4Q18 $143 21.2% 63.6% $454 70.7%
1Q19 $162 13.3% 80.0% $526 71.0%
**2Q19 $200 23.5% 94.2% $623 76.5%**
It was a significant beat and raise quarter, as average estimate was for $182M and they came in at $200M. They also raised full year guidance from $725-$740M to $800-$810M, and I think they’ll beat that by another 10%, closer to $880M, if they get their growth to 100% or more as I expect in the next 2 quarters.
Here is their press release for the quarter:
http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-r…
- Revenue increased 94%
- Test volume increased 93%
- Market share increased from 4.6% to 5.7%
- Gross margin was 74%.
The stock price dropped initially today about 14% from $117 down to $101, but has since recovered to break even for the day and is now slightly up after hours last I checked. I haven’t gotten to check out the conference call yet and not sure when I will, but from the standpoint of EXAS, I’m pretty excited about their continued growth prospects.
Why do I say “from the standpoint of EXAS”? Well their other big news they announced today was that they’re combining with Genomic Health. I’m not sure about the “combining” term as it looks like EXAS is buying them for cash and shares to me.
Here’s the release for that:
http://investor.exactsciences.com/investor-relations/press-r…
I know nothing about Genomic Health other than what I’ve read in that press release so I really don’t know what to make of this news. It seems to me the market didn’t like it initially, but maybe came around to thinking it was a good thing after looking into it. They do say the combined company will be a leading cancer diagnostic company with expected revenue of $1.6B and gross profit of $1.2B in 2020 so the companies seem about equal sized from a revenue standpoint.
Transaction terms: Under the terms of the agreement, for each share of Genomic Health common stock they own, Genomic Health stockholders will receive $27.50 in cash and $44.50 in shares of Exact Sciences stock, subject to a 10% collar centered on Exact Sciences’ volume-weighted average price for the 45 trading days ended July 26, 2019.
A comment on their combined presence: Cologuard and Oncotype DX, the companies’ leading brands, will respectively continue to help detect colorectal cancer and inform treatment decisions in colorectal, breast and prostate cancer, which collectively represent approximately 40% of all solid tumor incidence.
One concern I have is I’m invested in EXAS for the stellar revenue growth they’ve demonstrated for years, but Genomic Health just had 19% growth in 2Q19 so I’m not sure how that will affect the perception of EXAS going forward.
I’d appreciate anyone’s help on any info on Genomic Health or considerations to take into account from the merger. I don’t plan to sell or add currently (I added last week thinking the growth rate was going to accelerate as it did) until I’ve had a chance to study and assess Genomic Health and the new combined companies prospects.