The historian Peter Turchin has written several fascinating books that are essential to understanding Macroeconomic cycles. My favorite is “Secular Cycles.”
Turchin coined the phrase “excess elites” to describe people in the prosperous phase of an economic cycle who have been raised to expect that they will have great opportunities…but there are more people than opportunities. In the medieval context this would include younger aristocratic sons who won’t inherit lands. In the modern context they would include college-educated youth whose economies can’t provide the jobs they trained for.
Turchin says that excess elites can be highly destabilizing to society. They are educated and can provide the theoretical basis for the masses to incite revolution.
China’s Xi Calls for More Jobs for Young People, Migrant Workers
Official data pegged the youth jobless rate at 14.7% in April
May 29, 2024
China’s president is urging officials to create more jobs for young people and migrant workers…Employment for young people including fresh graduates is a top priority…
For the record-high nearly 12 million college graduates set to enter China’s job market this year, landing a job will likely be tough. Official data pegged the youth jobless rate at 14.7% in April…
The problem isn’t that China doesn’t have jobs for the youth, economists say. The issue is structural imbalances in the job market.
Many factories struggle to find enough workers to keep production lines humming as the population ages, while low-paid service sectors such as housekeeping find it hard to attract employees. There is also a shortage of the better-paid, high-skilled jobs many young people want to land after years of studying… [end quote]
This is pretty much the definition of excess elites. The Chinese leadership is aware of the problem and trying to solve it. But it isn’t easy to generate high-skill-level jobs.
Wendy